We have been ready for some time for the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics to ship us some excellent news on the British economic system – and immediately it got here.
Output grew by 0.5% in February, up from zero development in January and better than the 0.1% forecast by economists.
Some common caveats apply. Month-to-month knowledge could be unstable and liable to revision – however it may go up in addition to down.
Whereas publishing the newest figures, the ONS additionally revised up its January determine from -0.1% to zero.
It is clear that, throughout the economic system, sectors carried out robustly.
The large shock was manufacturing.
Enterprise surveys informed us that UK factories have been on their knees, anxious about Trump’s tariffs and impending tax rises that got here into impact in April.
But the manufacturing sector grew by 1.5% – led by prescription drugs, metals and transport gear. Companies have been resilient.
The chancellor might be happy, however the celebrations are prone to be fleeting.
Evaluation: Trump blinks as bonds falter
The world has already moved on, with Donald Trump unleashing coverage chaos on the worldwide economic system.
Britain is now going through a 10% tariff on exports to the US and there might be pockets of acute stress, notably for our automotive producers, who’ve been hit with a 25% tariff.
They export extra to the US than another nation on this planet. Certainly, a number of the development in manufacturing could have been pushed by companies speeding to do offers earlier than tariffs got here into drive.
The tariffs alone on the UK might be painful – however probably the most vital injury is prone to come from a slowdown in the global economy.
The US and China are engaged in a tit-for-tat commerce conflict and that may have unfavourable spillovers, particularly for an open economic system like ours. We can’t escape the fallout.
Companies right here within the UK may curtail hiring and funding in response, their hesitancy compounded by uncertainty over what Donald Trump may do subsequent.
Shoppers might also retreat, particularly if the pound weakens and imports grow to be costlier, inflicting inflationary penalties.
So, whereas we have lastly been given one thing to cheer, darker days beckon. We should always get pleasure from it whereas it lasts.
