Tariff disruption is a chance for Australia, says economist
Patrick Commins
Because the world braces for extra weeks of watching and ready to see what Trump will do with tariffs, the excellent news is that “Australia’s in most likely the perfect place to deal with” the fallout from the US president’s assault on world commerce.
That’s the view of Warwick McKibbin, an ANU economics professor and a recognised world chief on modelling the potential influence from America’s new period of commerce protectionism.
As information emerged that the US administration had flagged international locations had another three weeks after the 9 July deadline to do a deal and keep away from increased “reciprocal” import taxes, McKibbin informed the Australian Convention of Economists on Monday that we must be taking a look at these disruptions as an “alternative” to broaden commerce with our companions.
“We must be doing commerce negotiations. We must be reducing boundaries which make commerce more durable.”
McKibbin’s conclusion that Australia could be left comparatively unscathed by US-led commerce disruptions was backed up by separate Productiveness Fee evaluation which confirmed our economic system might even obtain a small enhance from America’s increased commerce boundaries, and concluded that retaliating with our personal tariffs could be counterproductive – a bipartisan place in Canberra.
This “small, constructive impact” comes about as items beforehand offered to the US are diverted to us at a less expensive price and as we additionally scoop up among the funding that flows out of America and closely tariffed international locations, the PC stated.
However Alex Robson, the PC’s deputy chair, warned the 0.4% modelled raise in GDP didn’t account for different, more durable to mannequin knock-on results.
“The proposed tariffs are prone to have a comparatively small direct impact on us, however the world uncertainty they’ve led to might have an effect on residing requirements in Australia and around the globe,” Robson stated.
Key occasions
Indigenous enterprise should be ‘backed’ to Shut the Hole
A landmark report from Provide Nation discovered Indigenous companies create $42.6 bn of social worth annually and permit First Nations individuals extra freedom to reside on their very own phrases.
Profitable companies result in higher psychological well being outcomes, extra satisfaction amongst communities and a greater connection to tradition and Nation, the report discovered.
Provide Nation, which offers Australia’s greatest database of Indigenous companies, stated “social worth” included issues corresponding to company over life, expanded aspirations, monetary safety and bodily and psychological well being.
Roughly $16.2bn of the social worth created was skilled by Indigenous workers, the report stated. Provide Nation’s chief government, Kate Russell, launched the Sleeping Giant Rises report at a Enterprise Sydney occasion on Monday coinciding with Naidoc Week. She informed AAP:
By lifting up our Indigenous communities … that’s saving authorities cash when it comes to welfare funds … nevertheless it’s additionally lifting a way of satisfaction, aspiration, happiness and wellbeing in these communities.
Governments should contemplate giving Indigenous entrepreneurs or indigenous companies a seat on the desk once they’re making broader insurance policies like Closing the Hole. They should be backed.
Practically 66,000 First Nations persons are employed by Indigenous companies, and 84% of householders stated these workers had been higher in a position to help households and really feel constructive about life.
– Australian Related Press
Shiny spots in agriculture amid market volatility
With droughts on one aspect of the nation, floods on the opposite, and political volatility abroad, Australia’s agriculture trade has been proper within the thick of it.
However there’s purpose for “cautious optimism” in the $90.7bn sector as unsure situations create each threats and alternatives for the nation’s producers, based on Bendigo Financial institution’s mid-year agriculture outlook.
Cropping, horticulture and cattle had been forecast to be on the up within the second half of 2025, whereas costs for sheep and wool would stay steady, immediately’s report claims.
Aussie beef will proceed to be on the menu within the US, the place herd numbers are in decline as a consequence of drought and elevated prices of agricultural inputs
Climate situations have each helped and hindered manufacturing, as rainfall in NSW and Queensland improved soil moisture, boosted summer time crop yields and gave winter sowing a robust begin.
Nevertheless, heavy rainfall and flooding in each states has broken farm infrastructure and diminished livestock numbers in some areas. On the identical time, extreme drought in elements of South Australia, Western Australia and Victoria has stifled manufacturing, upped the price of feed and created a poor cropping outlook.
With various long-term rainfall forecasts throughout the nation, climate will probably be key to efficiency within the remaining half of the 12 months, the report stated.
The season to date underscores the rising unpredictability of Australia’s agricultural local weather, demanding resilience and flexibility throughout the sector from producers and the broader provide chain.
– Australian Related Press
Andrew Messenger
Queensland zoo to reopen two days after girl loses arm to lioness
A lady has misplaced her arm after being attacked on Sunday at a Queensland zoo by a lioness, which the zoo insists “was not hungry” or maltreated.
Queensland’s well being minister, Tim Nicholls, confirmed that the girl, who’s in her 50s, had “misplaced her arm” within the assault, which took place at about 8.32am on Sunday on the Darling Downs zoo, south of Toowoomba.
In a Facebook post on Monday afternoon, Darling Downs zoo stated the sufferer was “not an worker, a keeper or a zoo customer”, however “a much-loved member of the zoo house owners’ household”. In a post on Sunday, they stated the girl had been “watching keepers working within the carnivore precinct”, one thing they stated she had “completed many, many occasions over the previous 20 years”.
“It has nonetheless not been potential to interview her to ascertain what led to this tragic incident,” the zoo wrote within the Monday submit, including that there was no plan for the animal to be put down.
We are able to affirm that she was attacked by a lioness. She was not in its enclosure.
The zoo emphasised within the submit that the animal “was not hungry, skinny, taunted or tortured”.
“A full investigation has been carried out by Office Health and Security Queensland,” they went on.
Consequently the Darling Downs zoo will reopen at 9am tomorrow [Tuesday] morning.
Learn the complete story:
Nino Bucci
One report, 33 suggestions, however Kumanjayi Walker inquest findings draw on two centuries of ache
The conclusions of coroner Elisabeth Armitage on how comparable deaths might be prevented replicate the influence of colonial massacres and home abuse.
Armitage units forth a course over 683 pages, with 33 suggestions, to cease extra deaths like Walker’s. He was shot 3 times by Zachary Rolfe, then a police constable, at home 511 in Yuendumu, a city 300km north-west of Alice Springs, throughout a bungled arrest in November 2019. The home is barely 400 metres from the place Armitage handed down her findings on Monday.
The homicide cost that Rolfe confronted and was discovered not responsible of greater than 4 years in the past centred on 3.1 seconds between when he shot Walker the primary time, and when he shot him twice extra.
However Armitage was working in centuries, tracing again the impacts of colonisation on the Warlpiri, increasing on the hyperlink between the horrors that they had confronted from police and governments for generations.
Learn the complete story right here:
Queensland nurses to escalate industrial motion
Queensland’s nurses will immediately escalate industrial motion, persevering with a battle with the state authorities over wages and situations.
Sarah Beaman, the secretary of the Queensland nurses and midwives’ union, stated the choice was a “historic step in our push for a deal that recruits, respects and retains this state’s frontline nursing and midwifery workforce”.
“Nurses and midwives are holding our well being system collectively by sheer coronary heart, talent and dedication,” she stated.
We’re at breaking level – and we’re completed being disrespected. We’re over the state authorities’s stalling ways.
Nurses and midwives are immediately escalating motion to maintain Queenslanders secure.
The motion is ready to start from 7am in any respect state authorities services.
There are about 55,000 nurses and midwives employed by Queensland well being.
All union members working for the state authorities can select to undertake a variety of business actions, together with taking their full break, not emptying bins or endeavor different workplace duties, not taking additional time except with a minimal discover interval, not attending some conferences and never getting into particulars that means the division doesn’t get some Medicare rebates.
Now we have not taken this choice flippantly, however the authorities has left us no selection.
This protected industrial motion is about ensuring there are sufficient nurses and midwives to take care of Queenslanders – now and into the long run.
Truthful pay. Secure situations. Respect. That’s all we’re asking.
Aldi trials supply service for Canberra clients
Jonathan Barrett
Aldi Australia is teaming up with supply service DoorDash to trial grocery deliveries because the low cost chain grapples with a client shift in the direction of on-line purchasing.
The service will open to Canberra residents this week forward of a possible enlargement throughout the nation, the German grocery store chain stated in a press release.
Aldi has lengthy resisted providing supply providers given it might improve operational prices. This could both make the enterprise much less worthwhile for its German house owners, or require Aldi to extend grocery costs, undercutting its benefit over its dearer rivals Coles and Woolworths.
An Aldi government informed a authorities inquiry final 12 months that “when you have workers choosing the groceries as a substitute of consumers doing their very own purchasing, clearly that may be a price that’s incurred”.
The low cost grocer beforehand ran a short-lived Australian trial during which consumers might buy a few of its “particular buys” on-line. Within the UK, Aldi provided deliveries by a tie-up with Deliveroo early within the pandemic however the partnership has since ended.
Australia’s dominant supermarkets Coles and Woolworths have closely invested of their on-line providers to faucet into the shopper development in the direction of deliveries, pressuring Aldi to reply.
Rafqa Touma
Thanks Martin Farrer for kicking off the reside weblog this morning. I’ll be conserving you up to date with the day’s information from right here – let’s go.
Jewish group requires nationwide anti-hate unit
Australia’s Jewish neighborhood is pushing the federal authorities to arrange a nationwide activity power to curb antisemitism, the Australian Related Press studies.
A Victorian taskforce will study police powers after a spate of alleged antisemitic incidents in Melbourne in latest days, together with an alleged arson on the East Melbourne synagogue that compelled 20 worshippers inside to flee.
The Government Council of Australian Jewry, an umbrella group for the nation’s Jews, feared additional alleged antisemitic assaults and stated greater than state-based motion was wanted. It urged the federal authorities to undertake a 15-point motion plan, together with the institution of a nationwide taskforce to clamp down on antisemitism.
“I don’t know the place the following assault will probably be or when or how, all I can say is that it’s statistically seemingly that it’ll happen,” the council’s president, Daniel Aghion, stated. “To this point, now we have been fortunate in that nobody has died.”
Tariff disruption is a chance for Australia, says economist
Patrick Commins
Because the world braces for extra weeks of watching and ready to see what Trump will do with tariffs, the excellent news is that “Australia’s in most likely the perfect place to deal with” the fallout from the US president’s assault on world commerce.
That’s the view of Warwick McKibbin, an ANU economics professor and a recognised world chief on modelling the potential influence from America’s new period of commerce protectionism.
As information emerged that the US administration had flagged international locations had another three weeks after the 9 July deadline to do a deal and keep away from increased “reciprocal” import taxes, McKibbin informed the Australian Convention of Economists on Monday that we must be taking a look at these disruptions as an “alternative” to broaden commerce with our companions.
“We must be doing commerce negotiations. We must be reducing boundaries which make commerce more durable.”
McKibbin’s conclusion that Australia could be left comparatively unscathed by US-led commerce disruptions was backed up by separate Productiveness Fee evaluation which confirmed our economic system might even obtain a small enhance from America’s increased commerce boundaries, and concluded that retaliating with our personal tariffs could be counterproductive – a bipartisan place in Canberra.
This “small, constructive impact” comes about as items beforehand offered to the US are diverted to us at a less expensive price and as we additionally scoop up among the funding that flows out of America and closely tariffed international locations, the PC stated.
However Alex Robson, the PC’s deputy chair, warned the 0.4% modelled raise in GDP didn’t account for different, more durable to mannequin knock-on results.
“The proposed tariffs are prone to have a comparatively small direct impact on us, however the world uncertainty they’ve led to might have an effect on residing requirements in Australia and around the globe,” Robson stated.
Bondi Junction stabbing copyright case ends
The copyright case introduced by the fiance of Bondi Junction stabbing sufferer Daybreak Singleton has ended with a judgment in favour of defendants, 9, on the eve of the trial.
9 had been accused by Singleton’s associate, Ashley Wildey, of breaching copyright by republishing the younger girl’s social media photographs within the wake of her homicide by Joel Cauchi earlier than he was shot useless by police final in April 2024.
The copyright case was set down for 2 days within the supreme courtroom of New South Wales earlier than each side agreed to a judgment in favour of the defendants on Monday. No order was made as to prices. 9’s assertion reads:
“9 welcomes the NSW supreme courtroom judgment in favour of 9 confirming that the photographs, which had been broadly printed by a number of media shops all through Australia and abroad after being positioned on social media, had been appropriately utilized by 9.”
Right here’s how we reported the case:
Reserve Financial institution broadly tipped to chop charges immediately
Patrick Commins
Debtors must be in for some welcome excellent news immediately, with the Reserve Financial institution board widely expected to ship an rate of interest lower at 2:30pm, Sydney time.
Monetary markets and economists agree {that a} second straight lower is basically a completed deal – although there’s at all times an opportunity that the central financial institution will shock us all and maintain.
In the event that they do observe up with a 0.25 percentage-point transfer decrease to three.6%, it is going to be the third lower within the RBA’s money price goal after strikes in February and Might.
Weak family spending and a bigger-than-expected drop in inflation in Might each supported the case for decrease charges, economists say, to not point out the looming menace of Donald Trump’s commerce warfare.
A price lower immediately would trim $76 from the month-to-month curiosity invoice on a $500,000 mortgage, bringing the full advantage of this 12 months’s cuts to almost $230 as soon as lenders cross them on to their clients. In fact, what’s excellent news for current householders is extra problematic for would-be householders, who’re seeing property costs accelerating again as borrowing prices fall.
The RBA’s governor, Michele Bullock, will maintain a press convention at 3:30pm the place she is going to little question be requested whether or not we are able to count on additional price cuts this 12 months.
Welcome
Good morning and welcome to our reside information weblog. I’m Martin Farrer with the perfect in a single day tales earlier than Rafqa Touma picks up the information baton.
The Reserve Financial institution’s financial coverage committee meets in Sydney immediately and it’s broadly anticipated by economists and analysts to conclude with a call to chop rates of interest by 0.25%. Now we have extra arising, plus the information when it occurs at 2.30pm.
Australia’s main Jewish group has stepped up its requires a stronger authorities response to the alleged arson assault on a synagogue in Melbourne by calling for a nationwide unit to fight hate crimes. Extra arising.
The copyright case introduced in opposition to 9 by the fiance of Bondi Junction stabbing sufferer Daybreak Singleton over its use of {a photograph} in an version of 60 Minutes ended final evening with a judgment in favour of defendants on the eve of the trial. Extra arising.
