In the early twentieth century, for temporary durations, probably the most frenetic American buying and selling pits weren’t the raucous markets through which shares have been traded, nor the venues the place bonds have been exchanged. The true motion was available in the market for betting on the following president. “Crowds shaped within the monetary district…and brokers would name out bid and ask odds as if buying and selling securities,” write Paul Rhode and Koleman Strumpf, two economists. Markets have been deep, liquid and good: in 15 presidential elections from 1884 to 1940, the favorite gained 11 occasions and three races have been primarily tied (in odds and outcome). Solely as soon as did markets miss the mark.
