Because the season approaches its closing two weeks, jostling for at-large bids continues for groups within the higher echelon of School Soccer Playoff competitors.
At this level, there are groups with CFP hopes each as a convention champion and as an at-large. There are others, similar to Large 12 contenders BYU and Colorado, which must win their convention to achieve the Playoff. The identical situation exists for Group of 5 squads Boise State and Tulane.
For the groups strictly in at-large competition, what are the instances for his or her inclusion and what are the issues that would maintain them from the 12-team match? Beneath we look at 16 groups with at-large hopes — not simply the 16 highest-ranked groups — and look at why they’re worthy of at-large consideration whereas breaking down their flaws.
No. 1 Oregon (11-0)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS (energy of schedule): 52; Document vs. FBS successful groups: 4-0; Document vs. FBS non-winning groups: 6-0; Factors for: 33.9; Factors towards: 15.7.
Case for: The Geese are the nation’s solely unbeaten staff, have ranked wins towards Ohio State, Boise State and Illinois and compete in a coast-to-coast convention. At this stage, Oregon deserves the No. 1 rating with out debate.
Deadly flaw: That is extra of a priority shifting ahead. Had Ohio State quarterback Will Howard slid a second earlier and known as a timeout towards Oregon, the Buckeyes may need kicked a game-winning discipline objective in Eugene. The groups are prone to meet in Indianapolis for the Large Ten championship. Ought to Oregon fall, the Geese may face Boise State once more within the CFP, and so they gained that recreation on a last-second discipline objective. Rematches towards motivated opponents may pose challenges.
No. 2 Ohio State (10-1)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 58; Document vs. FBS successful groups: 5-1; Document vs. FBS non-winning groups: 5-0; Factors for: 37.8; Factors towards: 10.7.
Case for: The Buckeyes have the expertise at each place to compete with any staff within the nation. They boast two NFL-caliber operating backs and the nation’s high protection. Howard has accomplished 80 p.c of his passes in six completely different video games, and receivers Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are an electrifying trio. On a impartial discipline, this staff may win all of it.
Deadly flaw: There are occasions the Buckeyes look bizarre, like in a 21-17 house win towards Nebraska. Accidents to Ohio State’s high two offensive linemen may have penalties towards a bodily, athletic entrance. Howard has competed at a excessive stage this 12 months, however can he make the game-winning performs in an in depth contest towards related expertise?
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No. 3 Texas (10-1)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 39; Document vs. FBS successful groups: 7-1; Document vs. FBS non-winning groups: 3-0; Factors for: 37.8; Factors towards: 12.1.
Case for: Texas can match up with anybody player-for-player. The Longhorns have the SEC’s high scoring protection and rank second nationally in complete protection. They’ve an skilled quarterback in Quinn Ewers, elite gamers at each place and confirmed their grit by shedding just one recreation to date of their first SEC season.
Deadly flaw: The Longhorns don’t personal a victory over a present High 25 staff. They averted Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee and South Carolina and so they misplaced decisively to Georgia. That doesn’t take away their intent; the Longhorns traveled to defending nationwide champion Michigan and gained 31-19. However questions persist about how Texas will carry out towards fellow elite applications as a result of they haven’t confronted a couple of coming into this week’s showdown towards Texas A&M.
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 37; Document vs. FBS successful groups: 6-1; Document vs. FBS non-winning groups: 4-0; Factors for: 32.4; Factors towards: 14.6.
Case for: The Nittany Lions have dealt with their enterprise in fantastic trend. They survived at robust highway venues like USC, Minnesota, Wisconsin and West Virginia with huge performs in essential moments. Penn State has an underrated quarterback in Drew Allar, the nation’s greatest tight finish in Tyler Warren and a top-five NFL Draft decide in edge rusher Abdul Carter. The Nittany Lions can adapt to completely different types and climate gained’t be an element.
Deadly flaw: There are two huge questions going through Penn State. One, can their broad receivers achieve sufficient separation towards an equally gifted opponent? Two, can coach James Franklin string collectively a number of wins towards top-10 competitors? In Franklin’s 11 years, the Nittany Lions are 3-17 towards top-10 opponents with just one victory within the final eight seasons.
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By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 65; Document vs. FBS successful groups: 6-1; Document vs. FBS non-winning groups: 4-0; Factors for: 39.0; Factors towards: 11.6.
Case for: Few, if any, groups have looked more impressive than Notre Dame within the final two months. Solely as soon as have the Irish allowed greater than 16 factors in a recreation, and so they’ve scored a minimum of 31 factors in every of their final seven video games. Quarterback Riley Leonard has change into an elite playmaker and Notre Dame’s line of scrimmage play can hold with any opponent.
Deadly flaw: The Irish have ranked wins towards Texas A&M and Army away from house, however their total schedule was gentle. Notre Dame’s 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois has served as a lightning rod for criticism. For the Irish the situation is straightforward: beat USC and decide up a house CFP recreation. Lose to the Trojans and doubtless fall from CFP consideration.
No. 6 Miami (10-1)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 61; Document vs. FBS successful groups: 5-1; Document vs. FBS non-winning groups: 4-0; Factors for: 44.7; Factors towards: 22.3.
Case for: The Hurricanes common extra factors than any staff in CFP competition. With quarterback Cam Ward, Miami can fill it up. In 5 completely different video games, the Hurricanes have scored a minimum of 50 factors.
Deadly flaw: No at-large contender permits extra factors per recreation than Miami at 22.3. The Hurricanes often have been concerned in one-score video games towards unranked opponents and have wanted late rallies to win. Miami has but to play a High 25 staff, not to mention beat one.
Miami will end the common season on the highway towards Syracuse on Saturday. (Sam Navarro / Imagn Photos)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 4; Document vs. FBS successful groups: 4-2; Document vs. FBS non-winning groups: 4-0; Factors for: 33.2; Factors towards: 14.6.
Case for: No person has extra high quality wins than Georgia, which beat CFP contenders Clemson, Texas and Tennessee. When working at a excessive stage, the Bulldogs appear like an eventual champion. They’ve a veteran quarterback and expertise that jumps off the roster. Regardless of a loss at Alabama, their livid comeback try will scare any future opponent.
Deadly flaw: Which model of Carson Beck will take the sphere within the CFP? He’s thrown 12 interceptions and three picks in three completely different video games, together with in a loss to Alabama and a win towards Texas. In a recreation between equally matched opponents, how Beck performs may improve – or hurt – Georgia’s efficiency.
No. 8 Tennessee (9-2)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 57; Document vs. FBS successful groups: 3-2; Document vs. FBS non-winning groups: 5-0; Factors for: 37.4; Factors towards: 13.1.
Case for: The Vols can play any type of soccer and compete. They rank second within the SEC in each factors scored and factors allowed. Operating again Dylan Sampson is without doubt one of the nation’s three greatest operating backs and sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava shows some dynamic qualities.
Deadly flaw: Exterior of beating Alabama, the Vols have an bizarre resume. None of their nonconference opponents are bowl eligible, and so they misplaced to 6-5 Arkansas in Fayetteville. It’s why Tennessee hovered outdoors the CFP earlier than Ole Miss and Alabama suffered losses final weekend.
No. 9 SMU (10-1)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 59; Document vs. FBS successful groups: 5-1; Document vs. FBS non-winning groups: 4-0; Factors for: 39.3; Factors towards: 21.0.
Case for: SMU’s ACC debut has been flawless with nary a loss regardless of a diminished income share. The Mustangs are one victory shy of operating the desk and advancing to the ACC title recreation. All-everything operating again Brashard Smith was essential in wins towards Duke and Pittsburgh.
Deadly flaw: An early loss to BYU lingers however not in the way in which most individuals anticipated again in September. With SEC groups slipping after their third loss, heightened scrutiny awaits SMU this weekend towards Cal and in a possible ACC title recreation. It’s price watching SMU’s protection, which has allowed a minimum of 25 factors to each bowl-eligible opponent since its BYU loss.
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By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 68; Document vs. FBS successful groups: 3-1; Document vs. FBS non-winning groups: 6-0; Factors for: 41.3; Factors towards: 16.0.
Case for: The attention check and statistics favor Indiana. The Hoosiers have an electrifying offense led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke and 5 receivers with a minimum of 24 catches, 280 yards and three touchdowns. Indiana additionally performs high-level protection, which is uncommon for a portal-based staff.
Deadly flaw: As of as we speak, Indiana has overwhelmed three FBS groups with successful data however that would fall to zero by Saturday. Its energy of schedule is by far the bottom of any energy convention staff vying for an at-large bid. Within the Hoosiers’ solely recreation towards a ranked opponent, they misplaced 38-15 to Ohio State.
No. 12 Clemson (9-2)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 62; Document vs. FBS successful groups: 1-2; Document vs. FBS non-winning groups: 7-0; Factors for: 37.6; Factors towards: 22.0.
Case for: In all however one among its victories, Clemson gained by double figures. It has a potent offense guided by quarterback Cade Klubnik, who has 29 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. The Tigers are third within the ACC in each scoring offense and scoring protection.
Deadly flaw: Clemson has probably the most pedestrian resume of any potential at-large squad. It has performed simply three FBS groups with successful data and gained simply as soon as, and that was final week towards 7-4 Pittsburgh. The Tigers quit almost 23 factors a recreation, the second-most of any staff within the CFP High 25.
No. 13 Alabama (8-3)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 7; Document vs. FBS successful groups: 6-3; Document vs. FBS non-winning groups: 1-0; Factors for: 36.2; Factors towards: 17.5.
Case for: Within the first half towards Georgia or all through its victories towards LSU and Missouri, Alabama appeared like not solely a CFP staff however a title contender. 9 of its 11 FBS opponents have successful data, together with seven of eight SEC opponents.
Deadly flaw: It actually begins and ends with the win-loss document. Shedding three video games would finish CFP hopes for almost each different program save for Alabama. The Tide dropped video games to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, each of that are 6-5. It’s not unimaginable to construct a case for Alabama’s inclusion, however it entails losses by a number of groups this weekend quite than for the Tide to easily beat Auburn.
No. 14 Ole Miss (8-3)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 31; Document vs. FBS successful groups: 5-2; Document vs. FBS non-winning groups: 2-1; Factors for: 38.5; Factors towards: 13.9.
Case for: Simply watch the Rebels in motion. It’s a potent offense led by Jaxson Dart and Tre Harris, able to placing up factors on everybody. Ole Miss crushed Georgia 28-10 and scored 63 factors on Arkansas, which held Tennessee to 14. The protection has NFL-caliber performers, particularly alongside the road.
Deadly flaw: Not solely do Mississippi’s three losses make it tough to climb into the CFP, however it’s additionally who beat the Rebels. Not one of the three groups are ranked by the committee with LSU (7-4) posting the perfect document. Shedding at house to Kentucky (4-7) might be the kill shot.
Ole Miss’ loss to Florida final week dropped the Rebels’ Playoff possibilities to 9 p.c, per The Athletic’s mannequin. (Matt Pendleton / Imagn Photos)
No. 15 South Carolina (8-3)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 18; Document vs. FBS successful groups: 4-3; Document vs. non-winning FBS groups: 3-0; Factors for: 32.9; Factors towards: 18.2.
Case for: Of the 8-3 groups hovering within the SEC’s second tier, the Gamecocks gained the essential head-to-head battles towards Texas A&M and Missouri. South Carolina has one among faculty soccer’s most dominant defensive strains with 39 sacks. Its offensive effectivity is spectacular.
Deadly flaw: That is the season of “almosts” for South Carolina. Two touchdowns had been known as again towards LSU due to penalties and a failed two-point conversion value the Gamecocks an extra time alternative towards Alabama. Barring a chaotic situation rivaling 2007, South Carolina “virtually” will get into the CFP.
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 33; Document vs. successful groups: 3-1; Document vs. non-winning groups: 6-1; Factors for: 30.5; Factors towards: 22.8.
Case for: Arizona State has posted its two most spectacular wins within the final two weeks, beating Kansas State 24-14 on the highway earlier than toppling BYU 28-23 at house. The Solar Devils, who’re led by versatile operating again Cam Skattebo, have churned out 5 wins by a landing or much less.
Deadly flaw: The Solar Devils have a 7.7-point differential, which is by far the bottom of any potential at-large staff. Their losses got here towards 7-4 Texas Tech and 5-6 Cincinnati, and so they’ve performed solely 4 groups with successful data.
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 40; Document vs. successful groups: 4-1; Document vs. non-winning groups: 4-1; Factors for: 31.4; Factors towards: 19.5.
Case for: The Cyclones are resilient, as demonstrated by three come-from-behind victories within the closing seconds. Iowa State has the Large 12’s greatest cross protection, which ranks third total. Their receiving mixture of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel has compiled almost 2,000 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Deadly flaw: Iowa State steadily climbed the rankings till shedding two straight to Texas Tech and Kansas (5-6). The Cyclones don’t personal any High 25 wins, and their depleted protection has given up greater than 230 speeding yards in three of their final 5 video games.
(High photograph: Johnnie Izquierdo / Getty Photos))
