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Form guide, field, tips and odds; David Gately tips Providence to beat odds-on favourite Observer

The Owner Press by The Owner Press
November 1, 2025
in The Boardroom
Reading Time: 9 mins read
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Brought to you by TAB.

Delivered to you by TAB. 9

There is likely to be a short-priced favorite on this 12 months’s Victoria Derby, however do not be fooled by the eye-catching last-start efficiency from Observer.

The three-year-old was miles forward of his competitors within the Group 2 Vase at Moonee Valley however was eased down proper earlier than the road by jockey Mark Zahra, who was later fined for failing to completely journey out the $1.75 winner to the ending put up.

READ MORE: Champion trainer’s Cup hopes skyrocket

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The colt has been confirmed to again up for the Derby over 2500m and the Godolphin runner will once more begin on the brief odds of $2.15 with bookmakers TAB.

Nevertheless, in line with racing knowledgeable David Gately, the hazard within the race is the Chris Waller-trained Windfall, who bolted dwelling for second final weekend and will take out the Derby at a a lot nicer value for punters at $6.50 on the time of publishing.

Windfall nearly chased down Observer final weekend Getty

Whereas he believes Observer is a deserved favorite, Gately is leaning in direction of his rival.

“He [Observer] exploded after they put the foot down, he put 5 lengths on them within the blink of a watch,” he stated on Huge World of Sports activities Victoria Derby preview.

“Windfall was wonderful although in that very same race. I do know Observer was eased down and it might need been flattering a bit to the attention, however geez he was powering and on occasions and measures, he was operating dwelling faster than good, older horses on the day.

“He will get to 2500m and I can not consider the worth differential on TAB. I am gonna lean to Windfall on the value … I feel it is an important wager.”

Watch the 2025 Melbourne Cup Carnival reside and free on 9 and 9Now.

The time-honoured Derby is one among three Group 1 races at Flemington on Saturday, with the barrier draw for the Melbourne Cup to happen instantly following the cardboard.

Within the different Group 1 races on the day, Gately is backing Idle Flyer to win within the Empire Rose Stakes over 1600m and Beiwacht to say the Coolmore Stud Stakes over 1200m.

Beiwacht Getty

Here is each runner competing within the Derby. Odds courtesy of TAB.

1. Observer (4)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Profession: 6: 2-2-1

Odds: $2.10 / $1.26

2. Highvol (15)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: Nick Ryan

Jockey: Jamie Mott

Profession: 7: 2-1-0

Odds: $23 / $5

3. Autumn Thriller (17)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: Rory Hunter

Jockey: Blake Shinn

Profession: 9: 2-2-2

Odds: $9 / $2.70

4. Miewa (8)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: Nick Ryan

Jockey: Jordan Childs

Profession: 7: 1-2-0

Odds: $19 / $4.60

5. Choices (7)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: Tony & Calvin McEvoy

Jockey: Harry Coffer

Profession: 5: 3-0-1

Odds: $15 / $3.90

6. Windfall (12)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: Chris Waller

Jockey: Craig Williams

Profession: 8: 0-1-2

Odds: $6.50 / $2.20

7. Azazel (10)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: Mark Walker

Jockey: Michael Dee

Profession: 3: 2-0-0

Odds: $23 / $5

8. Arcora (11)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: T Busuttin & N Younger

Jockey: John Allen

Profession: 8: 1-2-1

Odds: $41 / $9

9. O’Sheamus (5)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: J O’Shea & T Charlton

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Profession: 5: 1-0-1

Odds: $18 / $4.40

10. Amazake (6)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Declan Bates

Profession: 5-0-1-1

Odds: $41 / $9

11. Engine Of Struggle (9)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: M Worth & M Kent Jr

Jockey: Tommy Berry

Profession: 4-1-1-1

Odds: $19 / $4.60

12. Matsuda (19)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Thomas Stockdale

Profession: 5: 1-1-0

Odds: $51 / $11

13. One Step Nearer (2)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: J O’Shea & T Charlton

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Profession: 6: 1-0-0

Odds: $41 / $9

14. Savisanta (3)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: Chris Waller

Jockey: Ben Melham

Profession: 4-0-3-1

Odds: $23 / $5

15. McWoody (16)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: Mark Walker

Jockey: Jamie Melham

Profession: 2-1-0-0

Odds: $61 / $13

16. Deal Accomplished Quick (1)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: Daniel Stackhouse

Jockey: Matthew Cumani

Profession: 3: 0-1-0

Odds: $41 / $9

17. Arabian Prince (20)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: Michael Kent

Jockey: Craig Williams

Profession: 3: 0-0-1

Odds: $19 / $5

18. Freddie Bassett (14)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: Annabel & Rob Archibald

Jockey: Ben Allen

Profession: 5: 0-2-0

Odds: $61 / $12

19. Crack A Deel (13)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: Henry Dwyer

Jockey: N/A

Profession: 6: 1-0-1

Odds: $151 / $26

20. Tremendous Paradise (18)

Weight: 57kg

Coach: Andrew Forsman

Jockey: N/A

Profession: 6: 1-0-1

Odds: $151 / $26



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