One factor is now painfully clear: Israel’s battle in Gaza is sliding right into a eternally battle.
With ceasefire negotiations having collapsed, a number of studies within the Israeli media counsel that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now seeking cabinet approval to fully occupy the Gaza Strip.
Presently, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) operates throughout 88% of the territory, which is both beneath Israeli displacement orders or is a chosen militarised zone.
However beneath the brand new plan, the navy would advance into the remaining areas.
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It’s a transfer that is reportedly opposed by senior navy leaders who concern the long-term prices of whole occupation.
We have already got a way of what such an occupation would appear to be.
Palestinians rush to gather air-dropped humanitarian support. Pic: AP
The Gaza Strip can be additional chopped and sliced into militarised zones, patrolled by Israeli forces.
Palestinians can be confined to tightly managed enclaves, with restricted motion, fixed surveillance, and extremely restricted entry to humanitarian support.
For Mr Netanyahu, the political logic could appear compelling.
Public outrage over photographs of skeletal Israeli hostages has offered a possibility to reassert his safety credentials, which have been considerably broken after the catastrophic occasions of seven October 2023, that occurred beneath his watch.
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With elections on the horizon – not imminent however quickly sufficient – Mr Netanyahu is beneath strain.
A dramatic navy transfer could provide him a short-term narrative of energy and management.
Smoke rises following an explosion in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
However full occupation of Gaza brings main strategic and ethical dangers and will massively backfire.
There is not any assure it can create new leverage in stalled negotiations, neither is it prone to advance what’s now being floated as a complete peace deal.
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In reality, the other is extra possible.
The occupation might entrench the battle even additional, triggering a long-term insurgency by which Gazans endure much more and Israeli troopers change into perpetual targets of guerrilla assaults.
Palestinians carry support provides in Khan Younis. Pics: Reuters
Protracted city warfare amid Gaza’s ruins would require tens of hundreds of troops and carry the probability of serious Israeli casualties.
The navy is already stretched skinny.
An expanded operation would solely deepen reservist fatigue and public weariness.
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Then there’s the grave threat to hostages.
Army operations in areas the place they could be held might endanger their lives even additional.
And this may doubtless sharpen the deep divides in Israeli society.
Palestinians examine the injury on the web site of an in a single day Israeli strike in Khan Younis. Pics: Reuters
Protests towards the battle are already widespread and look like rising
The unity that existed within the battle’s early days has been changed by mistrust and outrage.
Internationally, Israel faces mounting criticism and rising diplomatic isolation.
Mr Netanyahu could also be in denial about how his actions are perceived globally, however the optics of a full occupation, constructed on the rubble of the already staggering destruction and displacement in Gaza, will solely intensify international condemnation.
