Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, Lamar Jackson and a sizzling MVP race: Sando’s Pick Six

The MVP race hit one other gear Sunday night time.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen frolicked in prime time on the San Francisco 49ers’ expense, carving snow angels on the sphere with coach Sean McDermott, not lengthy after Saquon Barkley and Lamar Jackson shared the NFL’s late-afternoon highlight.

No operating again has gained MVP honors in additional than a decade, and if trendy NFL math is your faith, none ought to contend for the award once more, as a result of passing is king.

How a lot enjoyable is that?

When Barkley ran off the proper aspect for a 25-yard landing to assist safe the Philadelphia Eagles’ 24-19 victory over Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens, we have been reminded, once more, how a lot he issues for this Eagles offense.

The Decide Six column leads this week by sizing up the main MVP candidates, with a watch towards the newest odds, which favor Allen (-250) forward of Barkley (+400), Jared Goff (+900), Jackson (+1100) and Patrick Mahomes (+1400). The complete menu this week, beginning with my case for Jackson, regardless of latest occasions.

• Sizing up the 2024 MVP race
• Steelers’ future: Wilson & the OC
• NFC North finest division since 1970
• Raiders, Bears end-game takeaways
• Dolphins gentle? Let’s have a look
• 2-minute drill: Historic Seahawks

1. Lamar Jackson’s manufacturing units him aside amongst MVP candidates, however with two of his worst statistical video games taking part in out in latest extensively televised defeats, his candidacy has taken successful.

• Why Jackson tops my poll now: The very best MVP candidates are quarterbacks who carry their groups to victories regardless of poor help from their defenses and particular groups. That is when probably the most priceless gamers (quarterbacks) are actually most respected.

Patrick Mahomes carrying Kansas City to Tremendous Bowl victories after the 2018 and 2022 seasons, when these Chiefs groups ranked twenty seventh and twenty ninth, respectively, in mixed EPA on protection/particular groups, is a part of what units him other than different championship quarterbacks.

Jackson nonetheless should show himself within the postseason, however the MVP is a regular-season award, and Jackson is doing what solely MVP-caliber quarterbacks are in a position to do. The QB Betrayal Index printed final month confirmed him main the way in which on this measure of QB worth, a giant change for Baltimore, which as soon as dominated on protection and particular groups, making it simpler to win.

With kicker Justin Tucker slumping and the protection nonetheless discovering its footing, the Ravens rank twenty ninth in mixed EPA on protection and particular groups, one spot forward of Cincinnati. They’re nonetheless 8-5 and projected to complete 11-6, per The Athletic’s mannequin, as a result of their offense ranks first in EPA total and per play.

The Betrayal Index takes EPA related to the quarterback, subtracts his group’s EPA on protection/particular groups after which divides the entire by video games began. When QB EPA is extremely optimistic and group protection/particular groups EPA is extremely detrimental, the quantity grows giant.

Jackson’s 13-game Betrayal Index determine this season ranks third over the previous decade amongst all QBs whose groups have been at the least three video games above .500 at this level (see desk under), per TruMedia.

The opposite QBs within the high 5 — Mahomes in 2018 and 2022, Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and Matt Ryan in 2016 — all gained MVP honors in these seasons. Whether or not MVP voters knew it or not, they have been rewarding the quarterbacks whose brilliance helped overcome weaker help from their defenses and particular groups. That’s Jackson this season.

Ryan may be the most effective comp for Jackson as a result of his Tremendous Bowl-bound 2016 Falcons additionally began 8-5.

Jackson ranks among the many NFL’s high three in EPA per go play, passer ranking, landing passes, passing yards and yards per try. The 132.5 EPA related along with his passes, rushes and scrambles leads the league by far. Allen is second amongst quarterbacks at 94.0, adopted by Goff (86.4), Jayden Daniels (78.3) and Joe Burrow (73.2).

However because the chart under exhibits, Jackson’s manufacturing (measured by EPA) doesn’t correlate along with his MVP odds.

It could appear odd if Jackson missed out on MVP honors this season after virtually lucking into the award final season, when there weren’t robust candidates. However group outcomes stay such a giant a part of the equation, driving narratives. Whereas the Betrayal Index tells us Jackson is definitely extra spectacular this season, the elite defensive efficiency that drove Baltimore’s 13-4 document and high seeding within the AFC one yr in the past forged his 2023 candidacy in a extra favorable gentle.

Jackson has gone from heavy MVP favourite to fourth behind Allen, Barkley and Goff after his Ravens misplaced two of their previous three. Allen’s Payments haven’t misplaced since Oct. 6. Barkley’s Eagles and Goff’s Detroit Lions haven’t misplaced since September (Goff lags for me in MVP consideration as a result of I believe he does lower than the others on his personal). Jackson will get a bye this week earlier than ending with the Giants, Steelers, Texans and Browns. He wants a robust end.

The chart under compares Jackson’s EPA via 13 video games to the 13-game totals for each MVP winner since 2000, no matter place. His manufacturing towers over his 2023 manufacturing whereas rating excessive amongst earlier winners.

• Barkley vs. Allen: Quarterbacks are extra priceless than operating backs, however there is no such thing as a legislation saying voters should favor a quarterback’s excellent season over a operating again’s sensational one.

Allen’s Payments rank ninth in defensive EPA per play and eighth in mixed EPA on protection/particular groups. Allen is having an excellent, extremely environment friendly season for a group with an improved floor sport. Buffalo now ranks 18th on the Cook dinner Index, down from fifth final season, because the Payments are passing much less continuously on early downs, early in video games. Theirs is a extra complementary model of soccer, taking some stress off the quarterback.

Every part about this Payments group appears proper. McDermott and GM Brandon Beane knew how and when to maneuver on from Stefon Diggs. They patiently revamped the receiving corps, including Amari Cooper at an inexpensive worth when there was a necessity. Allen is taking part in underneath management. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady has discovered the proper steadiness. There isn’t any drama. Everybody appears to be having enjoyable. Even McDermott. It’s nice, and appears stress-free, but it surely feels much less like an incubator for an MVP season than it’s one for a Tremendous Bowl run.

Whereas Allen is a a lot better MVP candidate this season than Jackson was final season, I nonetheless lean towards Jackson in 2024, and lean towards Barkley within the No. 2 spot for now.

It isn’t Thanksgiving anymore, however Saquon remains to be consuming immediately 😮‍💨@saquon | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/iN0zg8Tnei

— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) December 2, 2024

Barkley, with 1,499 yards on 246 carries and a 6.1-yard common, trails solely 1963 MVP Jim Brown (6.6) and 2008 Chris Johnson (6.2) in yards per carry via the primary 13 weeks of a season (minimal 200 carries), per Professional Soccer Reference.

Barkley ranks eighth since 1946 in speeding yards via a group’s first 12 video games. Eight of the others within the high 15 gained MVP honors in these years, however none extra not too long ago than Adrian Peterson in 2012.

Operating backs lag in EPA, which does a fantastic job of measuring how a lot every play adjustments the expectations for scoring however doesn’t, in my opinion, persistently seize the complete worth of the bottom sport in balancing out an offense, establishing a bodily benefit and taking stress off quarterbacks. Barkley has been the proper addition to an Eagles group that’s 10-2 and now operating the ball greater than any group within the league, each total and in one-score video games.

It’s a resurgent yr for operating backs typically, led by Barkley. However I’ll be stunned if a quarterback doesn’t win it ultimately.

2. The Pittsburgh Steelers rolled up 520 yards on Cincinnati and obtained a 414-yard passing day from Russell Wilson. What occurs subsequent will have an effect on Wilson, offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and the group.

The Wilson-quarterbacked, Smith-coordinated offense was sensational Sunday past a choose six interception enabled by what might have been a penalty for defensive holding or go interference. This was probably the most productive days for the Steelers’ offense in 305 regular-season and postseason video games with Mike Tomlin as coach (it additionally helped Tomlin safe the 18th non-losing season of his 18-season profession).

Lastly, after years of ineptitude on that aspect of the ball, the Steelers seem like they’ve an opportunity.

The implications are immense:

• Wilson’s future: The Steelers face Cleveland (house), Philadelphia (street), Baltimore (street) and Kansas Metropolis (house) over their subsequent 4 video games. That stretch will return the data Pittsburgh wants when deciding the way to proceed on a possible contract with Wilson, who was a cut price on a one-year, $1.2 million deal this yr whereas nonetheless gathering $37.8 million from Denver.

The Steelers don’t negotiate new contracts through the season and appear more likely to let the state of affairs play out. Wilson’s contract state of affairs continuously grew to become information throughout his Seattle days. That’s occurring once more.

“They took the final two quarterbacks accessible for $1 million apiece final offseason and have been successful with Justin Fields, so they aren’t going to be strong-armed,” an exec from one other group mentioned.

Wilson seems headed towards a payday that was no certain factor when Denver launched him.

“If he goes to the playoffs and so they win a playoff sport and lose to the Chiefs in a detailed one, you might be telling me he isn’t going to get Daniel Jones-type contract provides across the league?” the exec added.

Wilson, who accomplished 29 of 38 passes for 414 yards and three touchdowns within the 44-38 victory over the Bengals, might get greater than that if he efficiently navigates the upcoming stretch of more durable defenses and the Steelers break via within the postseason.

GO DEEPER

The Steelers needed their offense to carry them. Russell Wilson answered the call

Wilson is flourishing with a group that wishes to play the way in which his former group, Seattle, needed to play early in his profession. The mixture of powerful protection, operating the ball and Wilson making huge performs downfield was all the time a successful one.

The Seahawks misplaced the power to play that manner in Wilson’s remaining seasons with the group as their protection and run sport withered. Wilson sought a extra outstanding position within the equation when forcing his commerce from the Seahawks. Now, he’s obtained the proper group framework to win the way in which he gained way back, even when he’s much less succesful as a runner. Sunday’s efficiency recommended he additionally might help a group maintain tempo in a high-scoring sport.

• Arthur Smith’s future: Wilson looks as if a great match for Smith’s offense. What if Smith will not be calling the performs subsequent season? Smith reportedly won’t pursue an opportunity to educate his alma mater, North Carolina, however he absolutely would like to develop into an NFL head coach once more.

“I believe Arthur Smith will likely be a candidate for a head-coaching job,” one other exec mentioned. “I believe we’re going to see the second-time head coach come again in vogue. Washington goes to be a take a look at case for that with Dan Quinn getting a second probability. There are fairly a couple of guys who fell out of favor — Matt Nagy being one, Arthur Smith being one other — who possibly have been tied to the flawed quarterback of their earlier stops and can say, ‘Have a look at what I’ve performed as an offensive coordinator in my new place.’”

Quinn was clearly extra profitable in his earlier head-coaching cease, taking the Atlanta Falcons to a Tremendous Bowl, however the basic level is one fairly a couple of execs share at this level within the season.

• Steelers outlook: The Steelers haven’t gained a playoff sport since Jan. 15, 2017, once they edged the Alex Smith-quarterbacked Chiefs, 18-16, within the divisional spherical. Twenty-three different franchises have gained playoff video games since then, together with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns, who’ve every overwhelmed Pittsburgh within the postseason in that span.

If that drought doesn’t finish this season, and if Smith does land a training job elsewhere, what is going to Pittsburgh’s prospects be on offense, with or with out Wilson again on a dearer contract? It’s going to be an fascinating subsequent couple of months.

3. With the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings successful, the NFC North moved nearer to turning into probably the most dominant division since Roman Gabriel was the reigning MVP.

The NFC North entered Week 13 as probably the most dominant because the NFL realigned into eight four-team divisions in 2002, as measured by level margin per sport in opposition to groups from different divisions.

GO DEEPER

Best division since realignment? Putting the NFC North’s dominance in context

With Inexperienced Bay handling Miami 30-17 and Minnesota edging Arizona 23-22 in Week 13, a query got here to thoughts: Is that this probably the most dominant division since, say, the 1970 AFL-NFL merger?

The reply: Sure.

I’ve expanded my research from last week to guage all divisions since 1970 by PPG margin in non-division video games via the primary 13 weeks of a season. The 2024 NFC North ranks first by that measure (9.36 factors per sport) and simply forward of the 1984 AFC West — led by John Elway’s Denver Broncos and Howie Lengthy’s Los Angeles Raiders — for second in win charge (.778).

Tapping or hovering over any information factors on the chart above will establish the yr/division, its PPG margin and its win charge in non-division video games.

The 2013 NFC West ranks second to the 2024 NFC North in PPG margin up to now in a season. Third place belongs to the 1976 AFC Central, that includes the Metal Curtain-era Pittsburgh Steelers, the Ken Anderson-quarterbacked Cincinnati Bengals, the Brian Sipe-led Cleveland Browns and the Bum Phillips-coached Houston Oilers.

The present Lions (11-1), Vikings (10-2) and Packers (9-3) have left behind Chicago (4-8), one purpose the Bears fired coach Matt Eberflus.

The chart under exhibits how Eberflus and the surviving NFC North coaches have carried out since taking up their groups. The Packers’ Matt LaFleur and the Vikings’ Kevin O’Connell have by no means been under .500 throughout their tenures.

The Lions’ Dan Campbell hit backside at 15 video games under .500 two seasons in the past. He turned it round with a 15-9 victory over the Packers in Week 9 of 2022, adopted the following week by a 31-30 victory over the Bears. Campbell is now 35-27-1 (.563) with Detroit. The Bears’ present six-game dropping streak dropped Eberflus to 18 video games under .500, triggering the change.

GO DEEPER

The Bears finally fired Matt Eberflus. But he lost the locker room long ago

4. Right here’s what stood out concerning the end-of-game disasters for the Bears and Raiders (it wasn’t the methods).

Bears coach Matt Eberflus got here underneath fireplace — and misplaced his job — after failing to make use of a timeout as the sport clock expired along with his group trailing at Detroit on Thanksgiving.

Raiders coach Antonio Pierce got here underneath fireplace at some point later after stopping the clock with a spike, then attempting to run day without work the clock or advance the ball, solely to undergo a turnover on a untimely snap, with out trying a go-ahead area aim at Kansas Metropolis.

There are lots of methods to handle these late-game conditions. On the whole, groups ought to do what they’ve practiced, as a result of execution is such an necessary variable. Right here’s what stood out about these essential late-game disasters from a extra world perspective:

• Inexperience: Chicago’s head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback have been working collectively in these roles for less than the third time. The Raiders’ head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback have been working collectively in these roles for the primary time. Each groups modified coordinators not too long ago. Each have inexperienced quarterbacks. Chicago’s Caleb Williams was making his twelfth begin. The Raiders’ Aidan O’Connell was making his sixteenth. Each have been going through 10-1 groups on the street in chaotic, noisy environments. Heaps might go flawed, and did.

• Kicker issues: Each groups have been positioning themselves for tying (Chicago) or go-ahead (Las Vegas) field-goal tries within the remaining seconds. Each had purpose to fret about executing these kicks. Each groups transferred stress from struggling kickers onto inexperienced quarterbacks and fledgling offenses.

Chicago had field-goal tries blocked in every of its earlier two video games. If the Bears held onto that remaining timeout so the sphere aim group might function with out the stress of a operating clock, the technique got here at a worth.

For the Raiders, kicker Daniel Carlson had missed three kicks already within the Kansas Metropolis chilly (the Chiefs had additionally missed one). Gaining a couple of extra yards might have turned a 50-yard attempt right into a 45-yarder.

• Explanations revealing: Eberflus mentioned he wouldn’t have performed something in another way. He got into some of the details behind the technique however was not convincing. Pierce recommended he was merely seeking to throw incomplete to take day without work the clock on the ultimate play, however that didn’t seem like the one consideration, given the way in which the offense was working to that time, and aligning earlier than the fateful remaining snap.

In each circumstances, the coaches didn’t seem comfy, not to mention authoritative, when discussing their dealing with of those essential conditions.

GO DEEPER

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5. The Miami Dolphins have a 1-10 document of their final 11 video games in opposition to groups that had successful information at kickoff. Are they gentle? The reply may be hiding in plain sight.

The Dolphins’ 30-17 defeat to Inexperienced Bay at Lambeau Area bolstered annoying (to the Dolphins) narratives. This was their twelfth consecutive defeat when the temperature was 40 levels or decrease. It additionally was their tenth defeat of their final 11 video games in opposition to groups that had successful information.

The cold-weather streak isn’t as fascinating as a result of it dates to January 2017, lengthy earlier than Mike McDaniel grew to become coach, and since the stretch contains solely street video games, together with playoffs. Indianapolis and Carolina are a mixed 0-15 in equally chilly street video games over the identical span. Tampa Bay and New Orleans are a mixed 8-1 in them. Who is aware of why?

The Dolphins’ 1-10 document of their final 11 regular-season video games in opposition to groups with successful information issues extra as a result of all occurred underneath McDaniel. Nobody desires to be identified for such futility.

“This tells me they’ve a little bit of a entrance runner mentality and when issues get powerful they don’t have it of their DNA to deal with adversity in addition to a number of the top-tier groups,” former Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, now an analyst for Amazon’s Thursday night time protection, wrote on X. “Perhaps there’s a completely different rationalization however they normally play very properly in opposition to opponents which might be underneath .500.”

The Dolphins’ 17-16 regular-season document since 2022 Week 15 contains:

• 12-5 (.706) in opposition to dropping groups (Sixth-best)

• 4-1 (.800) in opposition to .500 groups (T-4th)

• 1-10 (.091) in opposition to successful groups (thirty first)

We will put aside one of many losses to a successful group (24-3 at Seattle in Week 3) as a result of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa didn’t play. The ten remaining video games seem under, ranked from finest to worst level differential for the Dolphins. Notice that Miami was 1-1 when favored in these video games, 0-7 as an underdog and 0-1 in a pick-em sport in opposition to the Chiefs at a impartial website in Germany.

Seven have been in opposition to groups that have been at the least 4 video games above .500. Six of these have been on the street (together with the one in opposition to Kansas Metropolis in Germany). The opposite 31 NFL groups have, on common, performed 1.9 of those opponents on the street over the identical interval. That’s one key to fixing the puzzle. Notice, additionally, that 5 of the defeats have been in opposition to Buffalo, together with two when the Payments have been at the least 4 video games above .500.

Fitzpatrick’s notion of the Dolphins as front-runners who battle to deal with adversity nonetheless carries weight. The Dolphins have coated the purpose unfold simply thrice whereas posting that 1-9 document in opposition to successful groups with Tagovailoa within the lineup. They misplaced by 37 to Baltimore, 28 and 21 to Buffalo, 14 to Philadelphia and 13 to Inexperienced Bay. That’s regarding.

6. Two-minute drill: Seattle overcame a traditionally unhealthy day on kickoffs and kick returns

The Seahawks netted -19.2 EPA on kickoffs and kickoff returns in opposition to the New York Jets on Sunday.

How unhealthy was that?

It was the worst single-game efficiency on kickoffs and kickoff returns in 6,641 regular-season and postseason video games since 2000, per TruMedia. That’s 13,282nd out of 13,282 particular person group performances on these performs, as measured by EPA.

And Seattle nonetheless gained the sport, 26-21!

The desk under lists the ten performs that mixed to supply the traditionally unhealthy EPA for Seattle on kickoffs and kickoff returns.

The Seahawks couldn’t have gained the sport with out a few former Jets draft decisions.

Leonard Williams’ 92-yard interception return for a landing (+11.2 EPA) was probably the most pivotal play of the sport.

Williams, drafted No. 6 by the Jets in 2015, added two sacks value a mixed 1.5 EPA on New York’s remaining drive.

GO DEEPER

Leonard Williams helps Seahawks escape Jets, bolstering playoff hopes

These three performs and the additional level he blocked (+0.9 EPA) offset 72 % of the EPA misplaced on these kick/kick return miscues (+13.8 of -19.2). Williams principally took over the sport. As an inside defensive lineman, that may be very tough to do. His efforts allowed Williams and Seattle quarterback Geno Smith, a 2013 Jets second-round selection, to take pleasure in their homecoming.

pic.twitter.com/gbaftGu8rI

— Geno (@GenoSmith3) December 1, 2024

Led by Williams, who was especially dominant during a Week 12 victory over Arizona, Seattle ranks No. 1 in defensive EPA per play since Week 9, a span of 4 video games. The Seahawks ranked twentieth via Week 8.

• Chargers protection: Earlier than Sunday, Kirk Cousins had by no means thrown 4 or extra interceptions with no landing go in any of his 160 profession begins, counting playoffs. That modified when the Chargers picked him off 4 occasions with out permitting a scoring go throughout their 17-13 victory over Cousins’ Atlanta Falcons. This was an encouraging efficiency for a much-improved Chargers protection that had sagged in opposition to stiffer competitors in latest weeks.

The Chargers are actually three video games right into a five-game stretch in opposition to extremely paid veteran quarterbacks. Joe Burrow (Week 11) and Lamar Jackson (Week 12) led offenses that produced extra EPA in opposition to the Chargers than any others had all season. Cousins was able to producing equally, however the Chargers shut him down, full with Tarheeb Still’s choose six.

TO THE 🏡

📺 | @nfloncbs pic.twitter.com/9EjMGmntzr

— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) December 1, 2024

The desk under lists the Chargers’ opposing quarterbacks chronologically, with the present five-game stretch marked by borders. Staff offensive EPA seems within the remaining column. The Chargers wanted this efficiency Sunday.

Subsequent up for this Chargers’ protection, which ranks fourth in EPA per play: Patrick Mahomes, whose Chiefs defeated the Chargers 17-10 in Week 4, regardless of being held to -6.8 EPA, by far a season worst for Kansas Metropolis.

• About Cousins: What if the Chargers’ efficiency in opposition to Cousins mentioned extra about Cousins and the Falcons’ offense, which hasn’t topped 17 factors in any of three successive defeats in opposition to groups with robust defenses? The ultimate scores of those losses: 20-17 at New Orleans, 38-6 at Denver and now, after a bye, 17-13 at house in opposition to the Chargers.

The Falcons plan to stay with Cousins as an alternative of turning to rookie first-round choose Michael Penix Jr. That’s solely truthful, with a visit to Minnesota, the place Cousins posted a 50-37-1 (.574) beginning document, subsequent on the schedule for the Falcons. How lengthy will the group keep affected person?

• Kingsbury’s reprieve: The Washington Commanders’ offense was again throughout a 42-19 victory over the Tennessee Titans, which means offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury gained’t have to listen to as a lot about his items declining within the second halves of seasons. The totals: 463 yards, 29 first downs, 64 % conversion charge on third down (9 of 14) and 6 touchdowns. All of it added as much as the Commanders’ third-best offensive EPA sport of the season and finest since Week 5 in opposition to Cleveland. It was a good way for Kingsbury and the Commanders to enter their bye.

• Bryce Young’s resurgence: The Carolina Panthers have suffered many brutal defeats in latest seasons. The way in which they fell in time beyond regulation to Tampa Bay, with Chuba Hubbard dropping a fumble when Carolina was in vary for the successful field-goal attempt in time beyond regulation, was merely painful. It was not brutal — not within the context of the place this franchise has been. The Panthers have develop into aggressive. Their second-year quarterback, Bryce Younger, seems extra viable. Try Younger’s splits within the desk under. The second column options his manufacturing since getting back from his benching.

• Lawrence’s damage: The hit Houston’s Azeez Al-Shaair placed on Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence left Lawrence exhibiting frightening concussion symptoms.

It was good to see Lawrence was feeling higher later Sunday.

Thanks to everybody who has reached out / been praying for me. I’m house and feeling higher. Means lots, thanks all🙌🏼

— Trevor Lawrence (@Trevorlawrencee) December 2, 2024

Officers ejected Al-Shaair from the game. The league will presumably droop him underneath guidelines in place to guard quarterbacks once they slide — guidelines that didn’t exist for a lot of the NFL’s historical past.

For some historic perspective, this 1988 hit by the Bears’ Mike Singletary on Steve Pelluer was deemed “The Hit of the Yr”.

No flag. pic.twitter.com/HfPOv0YenY

— Kevin Gallagher (@KevG163) December 2, 2024

(Photograph of Saquon Barkley: Patrick Smith / Getty Photos)

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