Tennis is again. Did you miss it? The season resumes from as we speak, December 27, with the United Cup opening proceedings in Perth, Australia.
The Athletic’s tennis writers Matt Futterman and Charlie Eccleshare are right here for the second of two mailbags, answering your questions submitted earlier this month. The primary targeted on tennis in 2024; this one will focus extra on 2025 and the state of the game, earlier than a deeper look into storylines on the ATP and WTA Excursions in the beginning of January.
Learn on for his or her views on gamers to look at this yr, the state of the political machinations on the prime of tennis, and extra.
Will H: Appears to be a generational transition brewing within the males’s sport in the meanwhile. Younger guys like Jack Draper, Arthur Fils, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Ben Shelton appear poised to interrupt into the highest 10 and knock a number of the earlier gen (Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Hubert Hurkacz) down a peg. Do you agree, who do you anticipate to make an actual push subsequent yr, and are there different names you’d throw in?
Charlie Eccleshare: I believe I agree. My solely hesitation is that I don’t know if that settlement comes from a egocentric perspective somewhat than an analytical one. That isn’t a knock on Rublev, Tsitsipas and Hurkacz; it’s simply thrilling to have new blood and there’s a way with these three (and others of comparable classic) that it might by no means occur for them on the very prime degree.
Perhaps the subsequent technology, with out the sort of baggage these of their mid-twenties have constructed up, is usually a real risk on the sharp finish of majors… However that’s what was mentioned about Tsitsipas et al. once they have been about to interchange practically males like Kei Nishikori, Grigor Dimitrov and Milos Raonic. Dimitrov remains to be right here and across the prime 10!
All 4 of Draper, Fils, Mpetshi Perricard and Shelton have the weapons to be a real risk to the easiest — they already are on their day — and so they actually have it in them to push for top-10 locations subsequent yr.
Different names to look out for are the world No. 50 Shang Juncheng of China, who’s solely 19 however possesses a wonderful all-round sport, and the thrilling Brazilian Joao Fonseca (18), who seems to be like a star of the longer term. Belgian Alexander Blockx seems to be like one promising identify of many on the Challenger Tour.
Of these barely older, Flavio Cobolli (22 and ranked No. 32 after a breakthrough yr) may make an impression, although he’s much less explosive than a few of his friends. World No. 25 Tomas Machac, 24, has critical weapons and might be an actual risk if he can add some consistency to his sport. The place does Holger Rune match into all this I ponder? At 21, he’s youthful than Draper and Shelton, however his trajectory makes it really feel like he’s within the Tsitsipas class.
Matt Futterman: John Isner reached No. 8 and made the Wimbledon semifinals. He additionally banked $22.5million in prize cash. That’s fairly good. Mpetshi Perricard could have extra weapons and is smaller, so he seemingly strikes higher. I believe we have to see him for an additional yr earlier than we work out who he’s.
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Anon: Which teaching shifts do you suppose will stand the take a look at of time?
MF: I’m going to wager on Wim Fissette and Iga Swiatek, totally on the idea of Swiatek’s expertise and on Fissette being a fairly genial man that everybody appears to get together with. Swiatek has a ton of weapons, a few of which she has holstered for many of her dominance: when she first broke out, she may spin the ball in addition to anybody and was volleying and hitting drop photographs with aplomb.
If Fissette may help her unlock the closet the place all that stuff has been saved the previous couple years she ought to begin profitable Grand Slams exterior of Paris and he might be an enormous hit.
Christopher Z: For each excursions, who had a down or absent yr that you simply anticipate to make a comeback in 2025? Wanting on the Australian Open entry checklist, some huge names utilizing their protected rating embody Pablo Carreno Busta, Nick Kyrgios, Reilly Opelka, Jenson Brooksby and Belinda Bencic.
CE: Bencic, the 2021 Olympic gold medalist in ladies’s singles, jumps out to me as a result of once we spoke just lately she sounded very critical about her probabilities of getting again to a extremely good degree.
Belinda Bencic is hoping to return to the highest of the WTA Tour after giving delivery to her daughter. (Tiziana Fabi / AFP through Getty Photographs)
Of the others, it’s exhausting to think about Kyrgios getting back from so lengthy out and being a constant issue on the tour, however I wouldn’t rule out him having sufficient to provide a magical second or two. Of the others you talked about, Brooksby at 24 seems to be like having the most effective shot at climbing his means again up the rankings subsequent yr.
The gamers to look out for is perhaps those who started a comeback this yr, like Naomi Osaka and Emma Raducanu and wish to construct on these foundations in 2025, ditto Karolina Muchova, who’s ranked No. 22 regardless of solely getting back from a nine-month absence in late June. Matteo Berrettini’s season solely started in March due to harm so maybe he’ll have a extra settled 2025, although I concern at 28 he could have peaked already.
In any other case, I’m excited by the prospect of a match Denis Shapovalov after the lengthy layoff he had, and the way about Ons Jabeur? She hasn’t performed since August due to a knee harm that wrecked her season, and absolutely everybody in tennis might be hoping that she will come again and be an element subsequent yr.
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Kevin M: What’s the newest with the proposed adjustments to ATP/WTA scheduling?
MF: Two phrases: Not a lot. The leaders of the ATP like making their gamers play at the least eight Masters 1000 tournaments. The WTA simply secured equal pay down the street in change for necessary attendance on the greatest tournaments. The one means any change occurs is that if gamers begin refusing to indicate up at occasions after the U.S. Open. I don’t see a shorter season. Perhaps the excursions lose sufficient 250-level occasions that they achieve again per week nevertheless it’s exhausting to see that anytime quickly and it might hurt tennis’ standing as a worldwide sport.
Tom J: Any information on the premium tour concepts that have been floated earlier within the yr? Has that simply come to a short lived hang-out till Indian Wells/Madrid once more or is there behind-the-scenes progress?
MF: Tennis honchos hold referencing productive discussions. Gamers are fed up and really feel like they’re getting gaslit. The Skilled Tennis Gamers Affiliation (PTPA) has employed a group of legal professionals and litigation of assorted varieties may start in 2025. That would drive change — or at the least some critical talks as an alternative of glad speak and gaslighting.
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Alex H: Do you suppose Jack Draper or Katie Boulter will proceed to have one other nice yr? Who’s your tip for the subsequent crop of Brits to emerge?
CE: If Draper can keep wholesome then I see no purpose why he can’t make the highest 10. In tennis circles in Britain and outdoors it, the sensation is that Draper has top-five potential.
Boulter’s progress has been regular over the previous couple of years, however the huge query mark is whether or not she will ship on the Grand Slams. She’s by no means reached the second week of a serious, and final yr didn’t even transcend the second spherical. Enchancment, or lack of it, on the greatest occasions will resolve whether or not Boulter continues being a really strong top-30 participant or one thing extra.
Britain’s No. 2 Raducanu has had a really completely different profession, profitable a shock Grand Slam at 18 however struggling for the sort of consistency that’s been Boulter’s hallmark since. That’s what she’s striving for now, and with Maria Sharapova’s former coach Yutaka Nakamura becoming a member of her group Raducanu is hopeful that she will keep match and get again in direction of the highest of the game. A phrase additionally for Sonay Kartal, 23, who gained her first title and cracked the world’s prime 100 in 2024, having ended 2023 ranked world No. 235.
From the subsequent technology, there’s a number of pleasure in regards to the British ladies coming by. The massive-serving Mika Stojsavljevic (16) gained the U.S. Open juniors in September and got here agonizingly near a primary tour-level win on the Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo. She is arguably the decide of the bunch. There’s additionally Hannah Klugman (15), who gained final yr’s worldwide under-18s match, the Orange Bowl, and got here inside a match of qualifying for this yr’s Wimbledon. Maintain a watch out additionally for Mimi Xu, a 17-year-old with glorious method, if not the straightforward energy of Stojsavljevic.
Mika Stojsavljevic will hope to construct on her success in 2025. (Luke Hales / Getty Photographs)
The boys should not at fairly the identical degree, although Henry Searle, 18, turned the primary Brit in 61 years to win the Wimbledon boys’ singles title in 2023. Charlie Robertson, additionally 18, has had a promising yr and is mentored by Andy Murray, however standing at a probably beneficiant 5ft 8in he’ll seemingly have to do some rising to make it on the ATP Tour. Oliver Bonding (18) and Viktor Frydrych (17) each went out early within the Orange Bowl final week, however are thought-about first rate prospects.
Julian G: How do you see the recognition of tennis in the US evolving over the subsequent few years? It seems like different sports activities are making breakthroughs (F1 “Drive to Survive”, Golf with the recognition of YouTube), whereas tennis is at a standstill with the flop of Netflix’s “Break Level”.
MF: If USTA numbers are to be believed, tennis participation continues to rise, although exterior New York Metropolis and another city facilities the place courts are scarce, I do see a number of empty courts. As for tv rankings, if the celebs can hold making finals and breaking by with the assistance of their sponsors, that may assist make up for the failure of Break Level. Plus, we’ll all be watching Zendaya and her boys on “Challengers” streams for a very long time. Sequel? Please?
James Hansen: This theme is related to the beneath questions, so I’ll put them in earlier than answering extra broadly…
Anon: As at all times, my query is in regards to the impact of tennis’ subpar broadcasting on the game. The hideous mild tan or pink courtroom surrounds making the ball inconceivable to see because it bounces; the nonetheless too-high digicam angle leaves calling slices or topspin as much as the announcers; hardly displaying the ultimate handshake whereas loving ‘the field”, whereas generally not ID’ing who they’re.
Sarah Bordeaux: What’s the newest and/or way forward for tennis broadcasting within the US? Tennis Channel (Plus) is now a standalone product, are there any potential suitors coming for Grand Slams or different broadcast rights, together with for the Challengers/NCAA tournaments/and so forth, and what precisely is behind the Tennis Channel deal?
Sinclair has been very open about its want to discover ‘strategic alternate options’ for the Tennis Channel, whether or not promoting a stake or the entire property. Its transfer to direct-to-consumer suggests a willingness to try to sustain with a altering media panorama tennis is but to actually become familiar with.
ESPN pays $2.04billion (greater than £1.5bn) to air the U.S. Open by 2037 in a deal signed this yr, whereas Wimbledon’s broadcast take care of ABC and ESPN networks comes in at $52.5million (£40.3m) per yr as of 2024, based on SP International. Broadcast rights stay gold mud, whilst cable TV revenues decline and direct-to-consumer alternate options can, to this point, solely vainly try to make up the shortfall. These broadcast rights — that are transformed into the broadcasting that many followers, like Anon above, really feel is usually subpar — are essential to Grand Slams as a result of their worth is tied to in-person attendance. If you’re an enormous tennis fan who can watch a match without spending a dime the place you reside, you’re much less typically going to pay for a ticket to be there in individual.
To maintain that steadiness, the published rights are very restrictive. Any footage lower up and placed on YouTube or social networks like X, Bluesky and TikTok will get copyright-striked and brought down in brief order, whether or not it’s posted by a participant who desires to succeed in their very own followers or a fan simply having some enjoyable as a part of the web tennis group.
That is the place reputation is available in. A sport can not develop if it can’t be found. A fan within the U.S. who sees a Coco Gauff TikTok or a meme about “Challengers” and needs to study extra in regards to the world at the moment can’t watch highlights besides on official channels and might’t watch a lot tennis in any respect with out a number of subscriptions. A participant who desires to have interaction individuals by documenting their life on tour can’t put up highlights of their very own matches. And in sanctioned media properties — whether or not documentaries produced by stars, or one thing like Break Level — tennis has largely failed to indicate followers why they need to care about anybody exterior the most important stars the place System One and golf have turned gamers additional down their rankings into compelling personalities. Then, in the event that they do make it, they have already got an viewers invested of their journey.
As cable within the U.S. will get much less and fewer worthwhile, these profitable media rights are, ultimately, going to get much less profitable. If tennis doesn’t change its relationship with discoverability, it’s going to get a giant and unhealthy shock once they do. Anticipate way more protection of this right here in 2025.
(Prime picture of Jack Draper: Getty Photographs; prime picture of Karolina Muchova: Related Press)
