Trump prepares to sign ‘big, beautiful bill’

At the moment’s agenda: German employee scarcity; Labour’s yr in energy; the battle to avoid wasting Tesla; and fewer leisure studying amongst kids

Good morning and welcome again. Donald Trump has secured a political victory after the Home of Representatives gave last approval to his flagship tax and spending laws.

What occurred? The 218-to-214 vote got here hours after Trump quashed a rise up amongst Republican lawmakers who threatened to carry up the invoice, which he plans to signal into regulation at 5pm immediately (native time), assembly his self-imposed deadline. In a symbolic act of defiance, Democratic minority chief Hakeem Jeffries spoke in opposition to what he referred to as the “ugly” laws for a document eight hours and 44 minutes, attacking the “devastating penalties” of “this reckless Republican price range”.

What’s within the invoice? The laws extends huge tax cuts from Trump’s first administration, paid for partly by steep cuts to Medicaid, the general public medical insurance scheme for low-income and disabled Individuals, and different social welfare programmes. The invoice will even roll again Biden-era tax credit for clear power, whereas scaling up funding within the navy and funds for Trump’s crackdown on immigration. It has been projected so as to add greater than $3tn to US debt over the long run, elevating worries amongst economists.

What does this imply? The president’s legislative win caps off a interval of aggressive policymaking that has enabled the US president to consolidate his power and influence. Prior to now month, Trump has stepped up his immigration crackdown and ordered the navy to the streets of Los Angeles, launched strikes on Iran and had Nato allies bow to US calls for for giant jumps in defence spending. He additionally scored a key victory on the US Supreme Court docket, which issued a ruling limiting federal judges’ energy to dam administration insurance policies.

Read more about Trump’s “big, beautiful bill”, which units the political battle strains forward of subsequent yr’s midterm elections.

Right here’s what else we’re holding tabs on immediately and over the weekend:

• Financial knowledge: The EU releases Could housing market and producer value inflation figures, whereas Germany experiences on Could industrial orders.

• US: Markets are closed immediately as July 4 celebrations kick off yearlong occasions marking the 250th anniversary of America’s Declaration of Independence.

• Moldova: President Maia Sandu holds Chișinău’s first summit with EU leaders António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen to debate the nation’s membership bid.

• Brazil: The Brics summit begins tomorrow in Rio de Janeiro and can proceed till July 7.

• Opec+: The cartel’s eight member states maintain their month-to-month on-line assembly on Sunday to determine on August manufacturing ranges.

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5 extra high tales

1. The EU’s unbiased watchdog has warned von der Leyen in opposition to speeding by way of deregulation with out the right safeguards, intensifying strain on the European Fee president forward of a no-confidence vote. European Ombudsman Teresa Anjinho mentioned that the fee risked eroding belief by pushing by way of its simplification drive without consulting civil society.

2. Worldwide mediators have moved nearer to securing a two-month ceasefire in Gaza, forward of a gathering subsequent week between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “Severe negotiations” to finish the struggle — a long-held Hamas demand — can be initiated on the primary day of a truce, in accordance with the draft. These talks would tackle points similar to postwar governance and safety preparations for the enclave in addition to the release of remaining Israeli hostages.

3. German enterprise has warned that the military’s rising want for brand new recruits would deepen a employee scarcity. Firm representatives mentioned they backed efforts to bolster the navy to assist Nato’s deterrence in opposition to Russia, however raised issues about authorities plans for the voluntary conscription of 5,000 18-year-olds each year.

4. Unique: Hitachi Vitality has warned that energy spikes from synthetic intelligence coaching are threatening to destabilise world provide, and referred to as for guidelines to alert utilities to the wild fluctuations in knowledge centre demand. Andreas Schierenbeck, chief government of the world’s largest transformer maker, mentioned “volatility on high of volatility” was making it difficult to maintain the lights on. Read the full interview.

• AI and work: Because the expertise turns into ever extra succesful, the query is not only which jobs are safe, however whether or not we’ll like the brand new ones that may emerge, writes Tim Harford.

5. Fundraising from preliminary public choices in London has tumbled to its lowest degree in no less than 30 years, in an indication of the waning attractiveness of the UK’s fairness markets for corporations and traders. The 5 listings within the first six months of the yr raised solely £160mn, confounding hopes that 2025 could mark a revival in listings activity.

How can Africa stability progress with the shift to cleaner power? Register for free to hitch policymakers, specialists and leaders in a web-based dialogue on July 9.

Information in-depth

US tariff receipts surged to $24.2bn in Could, however the knowledge highlights the potential for the aggressive tariff will increase to distort world commerce flows. Right here’s our evaluation visualising the impact of Trump’s trade war.

We’re additionally studying and listening to . . . 

• Tesla: Having “lastly woken up”, Elon Musk battles to save the carmaker as Trump’s tax invoice dangers costing the corporate billions in revenue from gross sales of emissions credit.

• Unhedged 🎧: The greenback is having its worst yr since 1973, which was a extremely dangerous yr. Katie Martin and Ian Smith talk about the glow-down of the currency.

• Massive Learn: Fewer kids are studying for pleasure. Can the trend be reversed?

• Megacities: What the far proper feels about metropoles isn’t bodily worry, says Simon Kuper, it’s discomfort.

Chart of the day 

One yr on from their election victory, the UK’s Labour occasion searches for course. This week’s indelible picture of Sir Keir Starmer failing to again his distraught chancellor absolutely was a metaphor for a main minister accused of being disconnected from his personal MPs and from voters. Learn extra on how Starmer fumbled his first year in power.

Take a break from the information

Postcard from Iceland: for in the future of the yr, fishermen are the celebrities as communities throughout the nation rejoice Sjómannadagurinn — Fishermen’s Day — and visitors are welcome to join the party.