High Democratic operatives are warning donors and elected officers the trail to move a voter referendum giving the occasion a possible 10-1 benefit in congressional seats in Virginia is narrower than many assume, arguing the occasion doesn’t have the identical benefits it did when an analogous referendum romped to victory in California last November.
The Outdated Dominion is just much less Democratic than California. The election can also be at an odder time: April 21 as an alternative of Election Day. Whereas California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) was determined to move Proposition 50 to show his bona fides to 2028 main voters, Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) has been solely passively supportive of the efforts there.
And Democrats really feel the Republican forces lining up towards the referendum are extra organized — and extra carefully tied to President Donald Trump’s political operation — than a California marketing campaign that ran out of money months early and led to bitter infighting.
Whereas Democrats nonetheless assume voters are extra seemingly than to not approve the 10-1 maps within the April 21 referendum, the probabilities of repeating the 64% margin that “sure” forces reached in California are slim, and guaranteeing victory may very well be expensive.
“That is going to be a messaging battle. Persons are in search of a method to push again on Trump, and this provides them an opportunity to take action,” stated Jared Leopold, a former Democratic Governors’ Affiliation official with intensive expertise within the state. “However this isn’t California. Virginia is a blue-tinted swing state, not a real blue state. And Republicans have a newer report of success right here.”
The ten-1 maps, which the Virginia Common Meeting handed earlier this week, had been crafted in response to Trump’s push to redraw traces in Republican-controlled states to remove Democratic seats. It began with the GOP eliminating 5 seats favoring Democrats in Texas, and has continued in North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio. Whereas the Republican push hit notable roadblocks in Indiana and Kansas, it’s anticipated to proceed with Florida Republicans trying to intestine Democratic districts later this 12 months.
Democrats have responded with a referendum in California, which is probably going to assist the occasion decide up 5 seats within the shiny blue state. The occasion may additionally act in Maryland within the coming months, and in New York, Colorado and different states after the 2026 midterm elections.
That makes Virginia probably decisive within the Trump-launched mid-decade redistricting wars. If the referendum passes, Democrats may basically draw even and even probably come out forward. If it fails, Republicans will seemingly have a small benefit.
“This isn’t California. Virginia is a blue-tinted swing state, not a real blue state. And Republicans have a newer report of success right here.”
– Jared Leopold, former Democratic Governors’ Affiliation official
The significance is underscored by who’s working the marketing campaign on either side. Officers carefully aligned with Home Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) are working for the Democratic marketing campaign, generally known as Virginians for Honest Elections, and a nonprofit managed by allies of Jeffries donated $5 million to the hassle earlier this week because the occasion chief guarantees to spend tens of hundreds of thousands on it.
The GOP group pushing a no vote on the referendum, dubbed Virginians for Honest Maps, has intensive ties to Trump and FP1, the GOP consulting agency beforehand led by prime Trump political aide Chris LaCivita. The endeavor is led by Michael Younger, who was Trump’s state director for Virginia and North Carolina through the 2024 election and is a accomplice at FP1. The marketing campaign supervisor, Finn Lee, was beforehand a director of “election integrity” on the Republican Nationwide Committee. The group’s state-registered lobbyist, Richard Cullen, is a accomplice at FP1’s public affairs arm.
And each former Virginia Legal professional Common Jason Miyares — who raised important sums in a dropping effort within the state’s 2025 common election — and former Home Majority Chief Eric Cantor are serving to to lift cash for the Republican group.
“All throughout Virginia, voters are talking out towards this brazen political energy seize that permits politicians in Richmond to decide on their very own voters,” Miyares and Cantor stated in a statement this week.” “It’s flawed, it’s unlawful, and it’ll fail.”
Virginians for Honest Maps didn’t return a request for remark, however Home Republican operatives had been assured their try can be stronger than the “no” facet in California, which was run by allies of former Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy and burned by way of $33 million donated by billionaire Charles Munger to little impact. The group was successfully broke earlier than Election Day, permitting Newsom to cease fundraising for Democratic efforts.
Republicans had been optimistic their efforts can be extra organized, however privately stated victory was unlikely ― an uncommon election in a state the place Trump is deeply unpopular is prone to appeal to fired-up Democrats. They noticed some hope in convincing voters had been now not merely countering Trump however engaged in their very own energy grabs.
“Now we have to persuade voters Democrats are those overreaching now,” stated one GOP operative with intensive expertise in Virginia who requested anonymity to talk frankly about occasion technique.
Different Democrats famous the hole between Spanberger and Newsom’s relative enthusiasm for brand new maps. Newsom, thought of one of many Democratic Social gathering’s finest fundraisers, basically handled the Proposition 50 referendum as the start of his 2028 presidential marketing campaign.
Spanberger, a reasonable extra desirous to show her bipartisanship than her progressive bona fides, was not concerned within the Common Meeting’s resolution to redraw the congressional maps, and apprehensive the occasion ought to draw a 9-2 map as an alternative.
“When different states take excessive measures, I belief Virginia voters to reply,” Spanberger stated in an announcement after signing the invoice creating the redistricting referendum.
Republicans are nonetheless holding out some hope that the Virginia Supreme Court docket may strike down the whole maneuver as unconstitutional, although a ruling Friday that the referendum can proceed for now signifies the possibility of a authorized rescue could also be slim.
Public polling on the referendum has been restricted: A Christopher Newport College survey released last month confirmed that 51% of registered voters within the state backed the referendum, with 43% opposed.
