Why the Dutch are hoping to jump the trade queue with Trump

Good morning.

As we speak, our commerce correspondent reveals the Netherlands’ “proactive” bid to scope out potential “one-to-one” commerce relations with Donald Trump’s administration, and our Georgia correspondent explains why the Caucasus nation has paused its EU accession bid (six months after Brussels did).

Have an ideal weekend.

Proactive

Going through a second Donald Trump time period within the White Home, European Fee officers are fretting that member states may search particular favours from the US president slightly than kind a united entrance. They’re proper to: the Dutch are already ploughing forward, writes Andy Bounds.

Context: Trump has threatened to hit Europe with blanket commerce tariffs of 10 to twenty per cent, however up to now has usually hit items selectively to punish particular international locations, and spared those that did what he wished.

Whereas the EU is a single buying and selling bloc and all 27 members observe joint guidelines, they’ve very different economies. A tariff on prescribed drugs would hit the Netherlands, whereas one on wine would harm France, Spain and Italy.

So it would fear Brussels to be taught that Dutch economic system minister Dirk Beljaarts has already visited Trump’s casual commerce adviser and is planning extra journeys to the US earlier than the January 20 inauguration.

Beljaarts instructed the Monetary Instances he met Robert Lighthizer, the previous US commerce consultant who drew up the tariff plans in September. “He’s very influential,” Beljaarts mentioned. “So I took a really proactive method there to guarantee that we don’t wait and see what occurs.”

He added that he wished to “construct the connection and know what drives them”.

It helps that Beljaarts belongs to the Freedom celebration of far-right veteran Geert Wilders, who has long-standing ties to Trump. It’s now the most important celebration within the Dutch coalition authorities.

“Republican commerce coverage is extra targeted on bilateral agreements slightly than multilateral,” mentioned Beljaarts. “There can even all the time be a task for the EU there. However one must be very effectively conscious that the choice is on the one to at least one.”

The EU has a big commerce surplus with the US, and dealing with looming tariffs has turn out to be a chief concern in Brussels. European Central Financial institution chief Christine Lagarde has said that Europe ought to co-operate with Trump and purchase American merchandise to keep away from a commerce struggle.

“There’s loads of work being performed on a number of potential situations and countermeasures within the EU but additionally within the Netherlands,” Beljaarts mentioned

No surprise newly reinstalled European Fee president Ursula von der Leyen used the primary press convention of her new time period to name for unity.

Chart du jour: Is France the brand new Greece?

France’s borrowing prices have surpassed these of Greece as buyers fret in regards to the authorities’s potential to cross a deficit-trimming funds — and its ability to survive at all. 

Nail within the coffin

Georgia’s parliament yesterday introduced it might droop the nation’s EU accession course of till 2028. Whereas the method was already on ice, this sends a big sign to its 3.8mn residents, greater than 80 per cent of whom help becoming a member of the EU, writes Anastasia Stognei.

Context: Brussels had frozen Georgia’s accession over a so-called foreign influence law enacted by the ruling Georgian Dream celebration, which was deemed to be breaching democratic ideas.

Yesterday’s announcement noticed GD overtly oppose EU membership for the primary time. In energy since 2012, the pro-Russian celebration had beforehand promoted EU integration. It was in cost when Georgia enshrined membership as a aim within the structure in 2017, and secured candidate status in late 2023.

In its assertion, GD claimed that European officers used the bloc’s funds to blackmail Georgia. By 2028, Georgia will likely be “economically prepared” to renew talks with the EU and be a part of by 2030 “with dignity”, slightly than “as a charity case”, GD mentioned.

Inside an hour of the assertion yesterday, 1000’s of Georgians flooded Tbilisi’s central avenue. Protests additionally erupted in different main cities, as demonstrators waved Georgian and EU flags.

Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili mentioned GD had “declared struggle by itself folks” and halting accession places an finish to the “constitutional coup unfolding for weeks”.

Zourabichvili was referring to final month’s parliamentary elections in Georgia, which the opposition has said were rigged. The opposition has not taken up seats in parliament, which is functioning with out nearly half its members.

In the meantime, Mikheil Kavelashvili, a former Manchester Metropolis footballer sympathetic to GD, has been nominated as its presidential candidate.

The European parliament yesterday handed a decision calling for new elections, in addition to sanctions towards main Georgian politicians, together with oligarch and GD founder Bidzina Ivanishvili.

The precise extent of GD’s co-operation with Moscow stays unclear. However Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday praised the Georgian authorities’s “braveness and willpower in standing up for his or her beliefs”, whereas denying any official involvement.

What to look at immediately

1. Irish general election.

2. EU ministers chargeable for analysis and area meet.

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