May Ichiro Suzuki turn into the second-ever participant unanimously voted into the Nationwide Baseball Corridor of Fame and Museum? Will Billy Wagner choose up the 5 votes he missed final yr to realize entry in his last yr of eligibility? Will CC Sabathia make it to Cooperstown on his first attempt?
Heading into the Jan. 21 announcement of the Corridor of Fame voting outcomes, all three eventualities are on the desk.
The voting is performed by the practically 400 eligible voting members of the Baseball Writers Affiliation of America; the entire 151 ballots logged on Ryan Thibodaux’s Baseball Hall of Fame tracker as of Tuesday afternoon have the field subsequent to Suzuki’s title checked.
So far, solely famed Yankee nearer Mariano Rivera has been elected to the Corridor of Fame unanimously — not Babe Ruth, not Hank Aaron, not Ken Griffey Jr. nor Derek Jeter, simply Rivera. May Suzuki be the second?
Thibodaux mentioned he doesn’t anticipate a solution to that till after the outcomes are official.
“We haven’t seen him left off of any ballots but and my guess is we received’t see one up till the outcomes are introduced,” Thibodaux mentioned in a direct message on Bluesky earlier this week. “If anybody left him off, we possible received’t discover out till after, if in any respect.”
Jeter was left off one poll in 2020 and Griffey three in 2016.
Voters are usually not required to make their ballots public, however the Corridor of Fame does enable voters to test a field on the poll to launch their choices following the announcement of the voting. Final yr, a complete of 385 ballots have been returned, with 306 voters selecting to make their poll public. Neither the voter who handed over Jeter in 2020 nor the three who left Griffey off their ballots in 2016 have been revealed.
Suzuki isn’t the one candidate trending in the direction of induction. Sabathia is on 140, or 92.7 p.c, which bodes properly for the first-year nominee.
“I’ll admit to being a bit shocked on the power of CC’s assist to this point. I had him eyeballed as maybe a 75 p.c bubble candidate, however he’s breezed alongside to this point and has comfortably been within the low 90s for many of poll season,” Thibodaux wrote. “Until the late private and non-private voters have a wildly totally different analysis of Sabathia’s credentials, it appears like he’ll be a first-ballot Corridor of Famer.”
FanGraphs’s Jay Jaffe, writer of “The Cooperstown Casebook,” mentioned he’s been shocked by Sabathia’s displaying in his first yr on the poll.
“I believed he was going to be someone who would squeak in like (Joe) Mauer did final yr,” mentioned Jaffe, who created the Jaffe Battle Rating system (JAWS) that’s generally referenced by Corridor of Fame voters to assist put candidates into historic perspective. “I don’t anticipate him to remain at 92 p.c and even 90 p.c, however I feel one thing upwards of 80 p.c could be very possible.”
Wagner is on the poll for the tenth and last time. After simply lacking the 75 p.c mark a yr in the past, he’s trending steadily towards induction. As of Tuesday afternoon, he was at 84.1 p.c on the general public ballots.
It’s not simply the uncooked numbers which might be in Wagner’s favor; the tendencies are behind him, as properly. After simply lacking out, he’s been added to eight ballots that didn’t embody him final yr and of the 141 public votes submitted, none who checked his title final yr haven’t chosen him this yr. One other eight first-time voters have voted for Wagner, as properly.
“There are nonetheless extra first-time voters on the market and he’ll want to take care of stable assist from that group,” Thibodaux wrote. “There are additionally possible a number of dozen voters who aged out of the voters this yr. If he occurred to have extraordinarily sturdy assist amongst them, then there nonetheless could also be work to do to get him over the end line.”
Carlos Beltrán was at 79.5 p.c of the vote as of Tuesday afternoon and Andruw Jones was just under the brink at 74.2 p.c. Based on Thibodaux, final yr those that made their ballots public earlier than the announcement averaged 7.55 votes per poll. Voters who waited till after the announcement averaged 6.77 votes per poll and personal ballots averaged 5.8 names. Thibodaux, who started monitoring balloting in 2012, mentioned these tendencies have been regular via the years.
The present voting totals are usually not encouraging for Beltrán or Jones in relation to their 2025 hopes, however it’s a constructive for eventual induction. Subsequent yr’s first-year eligible class doesn’t have any gamers who’ve a profession bWAR of 60 or extra, corresponding to Suzuki (60) and Sabathia (62.3). The highest first-year gamers on subsequent yr’s poll are Cole Hamels (59 bWAR) and Ryan Braun (47.1 bWAR).
Jaffe mentioned the power of Sabathia’s assist bodes properly for the way forward for not simply Sabathia, but additionally Andy Pettitte, Félix Hernández, Mark Buehrle and Hamels.
“Andy Pettitte and Félix Hernández are nearly diametrically opposed by way of how they’ve gotten so far, Pettitte with a really workmanlike profession and an enormous quantity of postseason work that was crucial in serving to groups get to and win the World Collection,” Jaffe mentioned. “Félix had a really excessive peak and an absence of longevity, early burnout and no postseason expertise.”
Pettitte, on the poll for the seventh time, was at 31.8 p.c as of Tuesday afternoon. Final yr, Pettitte obtained 52 (13.5 p.c) votes and this yr he’s already marked on 48 ballots, indicating a big leap. Hernández, in his first yr on the poll, was on 25.2 p.c of the votes revealed by Tuesday afternoon.
Whereas the deal with voting is at all times on the 75 p.c line wanted for induction, the opposite marker to look at is the 5 p.c wanted to remain on the poll.
Of the 14 names on the poll for the primary time, seven had not obtained a public vote as of Tuesday morning. Of the remaining seven first-year eligible gamers, solely Suzuki, Sabathia, Hernández and Dustin Pedroia (12.6 p.c) have obtained the required 5 p.c to remain on the poll.
Which means 10 gamers are at risk of falling off the poll, together with a pair of catchers in Russell Martin (4.6 p.c) and Brian McCann (4 p.c) who would fall off the poll after simply their first yr. Additionally going through the potential for not receiving 5 p.c are Torii Hunter (1.3 p.c), who’s on the poll for the fifth time, and Francisco Rodríguez (7.9 p.c), who’s on the poll for the third yr. Mark Buehrle, on his fifth poll, has 19 votes as of Tuesday morning, which can be sufficient to maintain him on the poll one other yr so long as not more than 380 ballots are returned. Another vote for Buehrle between Tuesday afternoon and subsequent week’s announcement would assure the longtime Chicago White Sox starter a spot on subsequent yr’s poll.
(Photograph: Steph Chambers / Getty Photographs)
