Change in votes in contrast with 2020
It could appear to be a transparent story: Donald Trump gained the election by profitable essentially the most votes. He improved on his totals, including about 2.5 million extra votes than 4 years in the past. However simply as consequential to the result had been Kamala Harris’s losses: She earned about 7 million fewer votes in contrast with Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s efficiency in 2020.
Ms. Harris failed to seek out new voters in three of the seven swing states and in 80 % of counties throughout the nation, a New York Instances evaluation reveals. Within the locations the place she matched or exceeded Mr. Biden’s vote totals, she didn’t match Mr. Trump’s features.
The place every candidate acquired extra votes
or
fewer votes in 2024, in contrast with 2020
Trump
Harris
We will’t but know what number of Biden voters backed Mr. Trump or didn’t vote in any respect this cycle. However the decline in assist for Ms. Harris in among the nation’s most liberal areas is especially notable. In contrast with Mr. Biden, she misplaced lots of of 1000’s of votes in main cities together with Chicago, Los Angeles and New York, and total earned about 10 % fewer votes in counties Mr. Biden gained 4 years in the past.
Mr. Trump, in contrast, discovered new voters in most counties, with vital features in purple states like Texas and Florida and in addition in blue states like New Jersey and New York.
Change in votes by county partisanship, in contrast with 2020
| Closely Democratic | ||
| Reasonably Democratic | ||
| Lean Democratic | ||
| Lean Republican | ||
| Reasonably Republican | ||
| Closely Republican |
Larry Sabato, the director of the Middle for Politics on the College of Virginia, acknowledged that Biden voters who swung towards Mr. Trump performed a component in Ms. Harris’s loss, however pointed to low Democratic turnout because the bigger issue.
“They only weren’t excited,” Mr. Sabato mentioned of Democratic voters. “They had been most likely disillusioned by inflation, possibly the border. And so they didn’t have the motivation to rise up and exit to vote.”
The national rightward shift is a continuation of voting patterns seen within the final two elections. Even in his 2020 defeat, Mr. Trump found new voters throughout the nation. (Each events earned extra votes in 2020 than in 2016.) And though Democrats outperformed expectations in 2022, when some had predicted a “purple wave,” they lost many voters who had been dissatisfied with rising costs, pandemic-era restrictions and immigration coverage.
On the native stage, three distinct patterns assist illustrate the general end result in 2024:
1. The place each candidates gained votes, however Trump gained extra.
In hard-fought Georgia, each events discovered new voters, however Mr. Trump outperformed Ms. Harris. For instance, in Fulton County, which accommodates most of Atlanta, Ms. Harris gained about 4,500 votes, however Mr. Trump gained greater than 7,400.
How vote totals modified in Atlanta precincts
The place every candidate acquired
extra votes
or
fewer votes in 2024, in contrast with 2020
Trump
Harris
By Eli Murray, Elena Shao, Charlie Sensible and Christine Zhang
Along with his features within the Atlanta space, Mr. Trump gained new voters in every other part of Georgia. He flipped the state again to Republicans after Mr. Biden’s win there in 2020. He equally outran Ms. Harris the place she made features in Wake County, N.C., Lancaster County, Pa., and Montgomery County, Texas.
2. The place Trump gained somewhat and Harris misplaced somewhat.
In Milwaukee County in swing-state Wisconsin, Ms. Harris misplaced 1,200 voters in contrast with Mr. Biden’s complete in 2020, whereas Mr. Trump gained greater than 3,500.
How vote totals modified in Milwaukee precincts
The place every candidate acquired
extra votes
or
fewer votes in 2024, in contrast with 2020
Trump
Harris
By Eli Murray, Elena Shao, Charlie Sensible and Christine Zhang
Ms. Harris nonetheless gained the county at massive, however her margins there and in different liberal enclaves of Wisconsin had been not enough to hold off Mr. Trump’s victories in rural, blue-collar counties that voted Republican in 2016 and 2020.
Democrats’ incapability to take care of their vote totals in battleground states was additionally obvious within the essential areas round Charlotte, N.C., Flint, Mich., and Scranton, Pa.
3. The place Trump gained somewhat and Harris misplaced so much.
Mr. Trump gained Florida’s Miami-Dade County, turning into the first Republican to do so since 1988. However once more, Ms. Harris’s loss was simply as a lot of the story as his acquire: Mr. Trump gained about 70,000 new votes within the county, whereas she misplaced almost 140,000.
How vote totals modified in Miami precincts
The place every candidate acquired
extra votes
or
fewer votes in 2024, in contrast with 2020
Trump
Harris
By Eli Murray, Elena Shao, Charlie Sensible and Christine Zhang
Different counties that Mr. Trump flipped had related vote disparities. In 21 of those 77 counties, Mr. Trump acquired fewer votes on this election than in 2020, however the Democratic vote drop-off was a lot steeper. This occurred from coast to coast, from Fresno County, Calif., to Pinellas County, Fla.
Joel Benenson, the chief pollster for Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns, mentioned he thought Democratic turnout was harm by the social gathering’s lack of a presidential main. (Mr. Biden dropped out of the race in July.) That course of, he mentioned, helps energize core voters who get entangled with volunteering, making cellphone calls and knocking on doorways early within the 12 months.
“That was an actual problem for Vice President Harris, who had a brief runway and would have benefited from an actual main season,” Mr. Benenson mentioned. “Republicans had a contested main — even with a former president, they didn’t simply hand it to him.”
Mr. Trump was clearly capable of harness enthusiasm past his base. He made features throughout virtually all teams ranging in demographics, training and revenue, together with people who historically made up the Democratic coalition. Ms. Harris didn’t match Mr. Biden among the many identical teams.
Change in votes by county kind, in contrast with 2020
| Majority Black | ||
| Majority Hispanic | ||
| City | ||
| Excessive revenue | ||
| Extremely educated | ||
| Retirement locations |
Pre-election polls confirmed minority voters swinging towards Mr. Trump, and he appeared to make features with these teams. He picked up votes in majority-Hispanic counties and in Black neighborhoods of main cities, a preliminary evaluation of precinct knowledge reveals. However he misplaced votes, as did Ms. Harris, in majority-Black counties, particularly these within the South the place turnout dropped total.
Mr. Trump discovered new voters in additional than 30 states, together with within the battleground states that had been the websites of strong campaigning. His features had been modest in most different locations. Ms. Harris was capable of enhance on Mr. Biden’s efficiency in solely 4 of the seven battlegrounds and simply 5 states total.
Change in votes by state,
in contrast with 2020
Faucet columns to kind. Swing states are in daring.
| Arizona | ||
| Georgia | ||
| Michigan | ||
| Nevada | ||
| North Carolina | ||
| Pennsylvania | ||
| Wisconsin |
John McLaughlin, Mr. Trump’s marketing campaign pollster, mentioned the marketing campaign was targeted on discovering supporters who weren’t dependable voters and ensuring they turned out to the polls. He mentioned that inside polling confirmed that voters who solid a poll in 2024 after not voting in 2022 or 2020 supported Mr. Trump, 52 % to 46 %.
“The technique was very very like 2016, to convey out informal voters who thought the nation was on the flawed observe,” Mr. McLaughlin mentioned. “These voters blamed Biden and Harris and usually had optimistic approval for Trump.”
Notes
County election outcomes are from the Related Press. The county evaluation relies on knowledge for counties the place counting was not less than 94 % full as of Nov. 19. Outcomes for Alaska are statewide.
The 2024 precinct outcomes are from the Georgia Secretary of State, the Miami-Dade County Supervisor of Elections and the Milwaukee County Clerk. The 2024 precinct boundary information are from state and native officers. The 2020 precinct outcomes for Atlanta and Miami-Dade are from the Voting and Election Science Team. For Milwaukee’s 2020 precincts, The Instances used an information set by John D. Johnson of Marquette Regulation College based mostly on the county clerk and the Wisconsin Legislative Technology Services Bureau.
In Atlanta and Miami, The Instances used knowledge from the 2020 decennial census to create a population-weighted estimate of the 2020 vote inside 2024 precinct boundaries. These estimates had been used to calculate the change within the variety of votes for every candidate in 2024, in contrast with 2020.
